Sandefjord II 4–2 Start II: Result & Stats

Sandefjord II

FT

4 – 2

HT: 2 – 0

Start II

5/18/2024

3. Division - Girone 2 · Group 2 - 7Jotun Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Sandefjord II66%

×Draw16%

Start II18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sandefjord IIExpected goals in this matchStart II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

3.08

1.58

Sandefjord II

3.08

Start II

1.58

Sandefjord II creates 95% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 13 away

2.77

creates per match

1.54

1.62

allows per match

3.38

creates per match

Sandefjord II

2.77

Start II

1.54

allows per match

Sandefjord II

1.62

Start II

3.38

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sandefjord II+0.00on par

Start II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over84
Under16

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes76
No24

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sandefjord II ↓

Start II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–12%

0–21%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–03%

1–15%

1–24%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–18%

3–26%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–04%

4–16%

4–25%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 3–1 (8%) · grid covers 82% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

94%6%2.5

84%16%3.5

67%33%4.5

48%52%

Double chance

Sandefjord II or draw

82%

Sandefjord II or Start II

84%

Draw or Start II

34%

Winning margin

Sandefjord II wins by 2+

47%

Start II wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Sandefjord II 1+ goals

95%

Sandefjord II 2+ goals

81%

Sandefjord II 3+ goals

58%

Start II 1+ goals

79%

Start II 2+ goals

47%

Start II 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Sandefjord II (draw refunded)

79%

Start II (draw refunded)

21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

71%

Both score & under 3

5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sandefjord II at home — creates 2.77, concedes 1.62 · 13 matches

Start II away — creates 1.54, concedes 3.38 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sandefjord II attack 2.77 + Start II defence 3.38 → ÷2 → 3.08

Start II attack 1.54 + Sandefjord II defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Sandefjord II scores more

66%

level

16%

Start II scores more

18%

Sandefjord II at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Sandefjord II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff