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Sandefjord II vs Start II — 3. Division - Girone 4 2020

Sandefjord II
Sandefjord II
FT
5 – 1
Start II
Start II
5/15/20233. Division - Girone 43. Division - Girone 4 · Group 4 - 6Gamle Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Sandefjord II58%
×Draw18%
Start II24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sandefjord II
2.74
Start II
1.75

Sandefjord II creates 57% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 26 away

creates per match

Sandefjord II
2.62
Start II
1.38

allows per match

Sandefjord II
2.12
Start II
2.85

finishing

Sandefjord II+0.00on par
Start II+0.00on par

Total goals

82%Over
  • Over82
  • Under18

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

77%Yes
  • Yes77
  • No23

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sandefjord II ↓

Start II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–03%
1–16%
1–25%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–26%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–03%
4–15%
4–24%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
94%6%2.5
82%18%3.5
65%35%4.5
45%55%

Double chance

Sandefjord II or draw
76%
Sandefjord II or Start II
82%
Draw or Start II
42%

Winning margin

Sandefjord II wins by 2+
38%
Start II wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Sandefjord II 1+ goals
93%
Sandefjord II 2+ goals
75%
Sandefjord II 3+ goals
51%
Start II 1+ goals
83%
Start II 2+ goals
52%
Start II 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Sandefjord II (draw refunded)
71%
Start II (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
72%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sandefjord II at home — creates 2.62, concedes 2.12 · 26 matches

Start II away — creates 1.38, concedes 2.85 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sandefjord II attack 2.62 + Start II defence 2.85 → ÷2 → 2.74

Start II attack 1.38 + Sandefjord II defence 2.12 → ÷2 → 1.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Sandefjord II scores more
58%
level
18%
Start II scores more
24%

Sandefjord II at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Sandefjord II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. Division - Girone 4: Sandefjord II 5–1 Start II

Sandefjord II beat Start II 5-1 in 3. Division - Girone 4 on May 15, 2023.

The match was played at Gamle Stadion in Sandefjord.