Starogard Gdański 0–4 Gedania Gdansk

Starogard Gdański

FT

0 – 4

HT: 0 – 1

Gedania Gdansk

1/13/2024

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 4

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Starogard Gdański21%

×Draw20%

Gedania Gdansk59%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Starogard GdańskiExpected goals in this matchGedania Gdansk

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.33

2.33

Starogard Gdański

1.33

Gedania Gdansk

2.33

Gedania Gdansk creates 75% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 3 away

0.67

creates per match

1.33

3.33

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

Starogard Gdański

0.67

Gedania Gdansk

1.33

allows per match

Starogard Gdański

3.33

Gedania Gdansk

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Starogard Gdański+0.00on par

Gedania Gdansk+0.00on par

Total goals

Over70
Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Starogard Gdański ↓

Gedania Gdansk →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–16%

0–27%

0–35%

0–43%

1

1–03%

1–18%

1–29%

1–37%

1–44%

2

2–02%

2–15%

2–26%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

70%30%3.5

49%51%4.5

30%70%

Double chance

Starogard Gdański or draw

41%

Starogard Gdański or Gedania Gdansk

80%

Draw or Gedania Gdansk

79%

Winning margin

Starogard Gdański wins by 2+

9%

Gedania Gdansk wins by 2+

38%

Team goals

Starogard Gdański 1+ goals

74%

Starogard Gdański 2+ goals

38%

Starogard Gdański 3+ goals

15%

Gedania Gdansk 1+ goals

90%

Gedania Gdansk 2+ goals

67%

Gedania Gdansk 3+ goals

41%

Draw no bet

Starogard Gdański (draw refunded)

26%

Gedania Gdansk (draw refunded)

74%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

58%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Starogard Gdański at home — creates 0.67, concedes 3.33 · 3 matches

Gedania Gdansk away — creates 1.33, concedes 2.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Starogard Gdański attack 0.67 + Gedania Gdansk defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.33

Gedania Gdansk attack 1.33 + Starogard Gdański defence 3.33 → ÷2 → 2.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Starogard Gdański scores more

21%

level

20%

Gedania Gdansk scores more

59%

Gedania Gdansk at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Gedania Gdansk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff