Gedania Gdansk 2–4 Starogard Gdański

Gedania Gdansk

FT

2 – 4

Starogard Gdański

5/14/2023

III Liga - Group 2 · Group 2 - 28Boisko Gedania 1922 Gdańsk

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Gedania Gdansk37%

×Draw24%

Starogard Gdański39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Gedania GdanskExpected goals in this matchStarogard Gdański

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.55

1.60

Gedania Gdansk

1.55

Starogard Gdański

1.60

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 51 home / 66 away

1.63

creates per match

1.24

1.96

allows per match

1.47

creates per match

Gedania Gdansk

1.63

Starogard Gdański

1.24

allows per match

Gedania Gdansk

1.96

Starogard Gdański

1.47

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Gedania Gdansk+0.00on par

Starogard Gdański+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gedania Gdansk ↓

Starogard Gdański →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–17%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

38%62%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Gedania Gdansk or draw

61%

Gedania Gdansk or Starogard Gdański

76%

Draw or Starogard Gdański

63%

Winning margin

Gedania Gdansk wins by 2+

18%

Starogard Gdański wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Gedania Gdansk 1+ goals

79%

Gedania Gdansk 2+ goals

46%

Gedania Gdansk 3+ goals

20%

Starogard Gdański 1+ goals

80%

Starogard Gdański 2+ goals

47%

Starogard Gdański 3+ goals

22%

Draw no bet

Gedania Gdansk (draw refunded)

49%

Starogard Gdański (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gedania Gdansk at home — creates 1.63, concedes 1.96 · 51 matches

Starogard Gdański away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.47 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gedania Gdansk attack 1.63 + Starogard Gdański defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.55

Starogard Gdański attack 1.24 + Gedania Gdansk defence 1.96 → ÷2 → 1.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Gedania Gdansk scores more

37%

level

24%

Starogard Gdański scores more

39%

Starogard Gdański at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Starogard Gdański will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff