Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Starogard Gdański vs Gedania Gdansk — III Liga - Group 2 2020

Starogard Gdański
Starogard Gdański
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Gedania Gdansk
Gedania Gdansk
10/7/2022III Liga - Group 2III Liga - Group 2 · Group 2 - 11Stadion Miejski im. Kazimierza Deyny

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 50+ matches

Starogard Gdański35%
×Draw23%
Gedania Gdansk42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Starogard Gdański
1.58
Gedania Gdansk
1.73

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 69 home / 50 away

creates per match

Starogard Gdański
1.26
Gedania Gdansk
1.56

allows per match

Starogard Gdański
1.90
Gedania Gdansk
1.90

finishing

Starogard Gdański+0.00on par
Gedania Gdansk+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Starogard Gdański ↓

Gedania Gdansk →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Starogard Gdański or draw
58%
Starogard Gdański or Gedania Gdansk
77%
Draw or Gedania Gdansk
65%

Winning margin

Starogard Gdański wins by 2+
17%
Gedania Gdansk wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Starogard Gdański 1+ goals
79%
Starogard Gdański 2+ goals
47%
Starogard Gdański 3+ goals
21%
Gedania Gdansk 1+ goals
82%
Gedania Gdansk 2+ goals
52%
Gedania Gdansk 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Starogard Gdański (draw refunded)
46%
Gedania Gdansk (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Starogard Gdański at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.90 · 69 matches

Gedania Gdansk away — creates 1.56, concedes 1.90 · 50 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Starogard Gdański attack 1.26 + Gedania Gdansk defence 1.90 → ÷2 → 1.58

Gedania Gdansk attack 1.56 + Starogard Gdański defence 1.90 → ÷2 → 1.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Starogard Gdański scores more
35%
level
23%
Gedania Gdansk scores more
42%

Gedania Gdansk at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Gedania Gdansk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

III Liga - Group 2: Starogard Gdański 0–1 Gedania Gdansk

Gedania Gdansk beat Starogard Gdański 1-0 in III Liga - Group 2 on October 7, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion Miejski im. Kazimierza Deyny in Starogard Gdański.