Stargard Szczeciński 4–0 Flota Świnoujście

Stargard Szczeciński

FT

4 – 0

Flota Świnoujście

7/11/2026

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Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Stargard Szczeciński84%

×Draw11%

Flota Świnoujście5%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Stargard SzczecińskiExpected goals in this matchFlota Świnoujście

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.90

0.55

Stargard Szczeciński

2.90

Flota Świnoujście

0.55

Stargard Szczeciński creates 427% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 5 away

3.00

creates per match

0.60

0.50

allows per match

2.80

creates per match

Stargard Szczeciński

3.00

Flota Świnoujście

0.60

allows per match

Stargard Szczeciński

0.50

Flota Świnoujście

2.80

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Stargard Szczeciński+0.00on par

Flota Świnoujście+0.00on par

Total goals

Over66
Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No60
Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stargard Szczeciński ↓

Flota Świnoujście →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–12%

0–20%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–15%

1–21%

1–30%

1–40%

2

2–014%

2–18%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–013%

3–17%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–010%

4–15%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (14%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

66%34%3.5

44%56%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

Stargard Szczeciński or draw

95%

Stargard Szczeciński or Flota Świnoujście

89%

Draw or Flota Świnoujście

16%

Winning margin

Stargard Szczeciński wins by 2+

65%

Flota Świnoujście wins by 2+

1%

Team goals

Stargard Szczeciński 1+ goals

94%

Stargard Szczeciński 2+ goals

78%

Stargard Szczeciński 3+ goals

54%

Flota Świnoujście 1+ goals

42%

Flota Świnoujście 2+ goals

11%

Flota Świnoujście 3+ goals

2%

Draw no bet

Stargard Szczeciński (draw refunded)

95%

Flota Świnoujście (draw refunded)

5%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stargard Szczeciński at home — creates 3.00, concedes 0.50 · 4 matches

Flota Świnoujście away — creates 0.60, concedes 2.80 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stargard Szczeciński attack 3.00 + Flota Świnoujście defence 2.80 → ÷2 → 2.90

Flota Świnoujście attack 0.60 + Stargard Szczeciński defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 0.55

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 84%?"

Stargard Szczeciński scores more

84%

level

11%

Flota Świnoujście scores more

5%

Stargard Szczeciński at 84% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 84% does not mean "Stargard Szczeciński will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff