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Flota Świnoujście vs Stargard Szczeciński — III Liga - Group 2 2020

Flota Świnoujście
Flota Świnoujście
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Stargard Szczeciński
Stargard Szczeciński
11/15/2025III Liga - Group 2III Liga - Group 2 · Group II - 17Stadion Miejski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 68+ matches

Flota Świnoujście33%
×Draw23%
Stargard Szczeciński44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Flota Świnoujście
1.50
Stargard Szczeciński
1.76

Stargard Szczeciński creates 17% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 83 away

creates per match

Flota Świnoujście
1.40
Stargard Szczeciński
1.80

allows per match

Flota Świnoujście
1.72
Stargard Szczeciński
1.60

finishing

Flota Świnoujście+0.00on par
Stargard Szczeciński+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Flota Świnoujście ↓

Stargard Szczeciński →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–26%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Flota Świnoujście or draw
56%
Flota Świnoujście or Stargard Szczeciński
77%
Draw or Stargard Szczeciński
67%

Winning margin

Flota Świnoujście wins by 2+
15%
Stargard Szczeciński wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Flota Świnoujście 1+ goals
78%
Flota Świnoujście 2+ goals
44%
Flota Świnoujście 3+ goals
19%
Stargard Szczeciński 1+ goals
83%
Stargard Szczeciński 2+ goals
52%
Stargard Szczeciński 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

Flota Świnoujście (draw refunded)
43%
Stargard Szczeciński (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Flota Świnoujście at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.72 · 68 matches

Stargard Szczeciński away — creates 1.80, concedes 1.60 · 83 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Flota Świnoujście attack 1.40 + Stargard Szczeciński defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.50

Stargard Szczeciński attack 1.80 + Flota Świnoujście defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Flota Świnoujście scores more
33%
level
23%
Stargard Szczeciński scores more
44%

Stargard Szczeciński at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Stargard Szczeciński will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

III Liga - Group 2: Flota Świnoujście 1–1 Stargard Szczeciński

Flota Świnoujście and Stargard Szczeciński drew 1-1 in III Liga - Group 2 on November 15, 2025.

The match was played at Stadion Miejski in Świnoujście.