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Stargard Szczeciński vs Flota Świnoujście — III Liga - Group 2 2020

Stargard Szczeciński
Stargard Szczeciński
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Flota Świnoujście
Flota Świnoujście
5/30/2026III Liga - Group 2III Liga - Group 2 · Group II - 34Stadion Miejski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 68+ matches

Stargard Szczeciński44%
×Draw24%
Flota Świnoujście33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Stargard Szczeciński
1.68
Flota Świnoujście
1.42

Stargard Szczeciński creates 18% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 68 away

creates per match

Stargard Szczeciński
1.80
Flota Świnoujście
1.38

allows per match

Stargard Szczeciński
1.46
Flota Świnoujście
1.56

finishing

Stargard Szczeciński+0.00on par
Flota Świnoujście+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stargard Szczeciński ↓

Flota Świnoujście →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Stargard Szczeciński or draw
67%
Stargard Szczeciński or Flota Świnoujście
76%
Draw or Flota Świnoujście
56%

Winning margin

Stargard Szczeciński wins by 2+
23%
Flota Świnoujście wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Stargard Szczeciński 1+ goals
81%
Stargard Szczeciński 2+ goals
50%
Stargard Szczeciński 3+ goals
24%
Flota Świnoujście 1+ goals
76%
Flota Świnoujście 2+ goals
41%
Flota Świnoujście 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Stargard Szczeciński (draw refunded)
57%
Flota Świnoujście (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stargard Szczeciński at home — creates 1.80, concedes 1.46 · 85 matches

Flota Świnoujście away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.56 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stargard Szczeciński attack 1.80 + Flota Świnoujście defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.68

Flota Świnoujście attack 1.38 + Stargard Szczeciński defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Stargard Szczeciński scores more
44%
level
24%
Flota Świnoujście scores more
33%

Stargard Szczeciński at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Stargard Szczeciński will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

III Liga - Group 2: Stargard Szczeciński 3–0 Flota Świnoujście

Stargard Szczeciński beat Flota Świnoujście 3-0 in III Liga - Group 2 on May 30, 2026.

The match was played at Stadion Miejski in Stargard Szczeciński.