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Standard Liege vs KV Mechelen — Jupiler Pro League 2025

Standard Liege
Standard Liege
FT
2 – 2
HT: 2 – 1
KV Mechelen
KV Mechelen
L. Amani 41'
A. Hountondji 21'
K. Van Rafelghem 68'
P. Pflücke 33'
3/29/2025Jupiler Pro LeagueJupiler Pro League · Conference League Play-off Group - 1Stade Maurice Dufrasne

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 16+ matches

Standard Liege43%
×Draw25%
KV Mechelen33%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Standard Liege
1.57
KV Mechelen
1.34

Standard Liege creates 17% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 16 away

creates per match

Standard Liege
1.17
KV Mechelen
1.03

allows per match

Standard Liege
1.66
KV Mechelen
1.97

finishing

Standard Liege-0.38scores less
KV Mechelen+0.41scores more

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Standard Liege ↓

KV Mechelen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Standard Liege or draw
67%
Standard Liege or KV Mechelen
75%
Draw or KV Mechelen
57%

Winning margin

Standard Liege wins by 2+
21%
KV Mechelen wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Standard Liege 1+ goals
79%
Standard Liege 2+ goals
46%
Standard Liege 3+ goals
21%
KV Mechelen 1+ goals
74%
KV Mechelen 2+ goals
39%
KV Mechelen 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Standard Liege (draw refunded)
57%
KV Mechelen (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Standard Liege at home — creates 1.17, concedes 1.66 · 19 matches

KV Mechelen away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.97 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Standard Liege attack 1.17 + KV Mechelen defence 1.97 → ÷2 → 1.57

KV Mechelen attack 1.03 + Standard Liege defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Standard Liege scores more
43%
level
25%
KV Mechelen scores more
33%

Standard Liege at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Standard Liege will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

77
A. HountondjiStandard LiegeStandard Liege · F
8.2

Match Events

21'
A. Hountondji
33'
P. Pflücke↳ B. Raman
41'
L. Amani↳ A. Hountondji
64'
I. Camara← B. Bolingoli
65'
R. Schoofs← F. Hammar
66'
B. Antonio← José Marsà
66'
K. Van Rafelghem← N. Storm
68'
K. Van Rafelghem↳ B. Antonio
77'
S. Alexandropoulos← L. Kuavita
77'
A. O'Neill← I. Karamoko
80'
Ahmed Touba
84'
M. Konaté← G. Hairemans
84'
L. Lauberbach← B. Raman
87'
Y. Gboua← L. Amani

Possession

32%Standard

Shots

11Standard

Pass accuracy

46%Standard

Statistics

StandardKV
Overview
32%Possession68%
11Total Shots13
1.63Expected Goals (xG)1.74
8Corners6
9Fouls8
Shots
11Total Shots13
4On Target4
6Off Target8
1Blocked1
7Inside Box8
4Outside Box5
Passing
32%Possession68%
291Total Passes638
210Accurate Passes548
72%Pass Accuracy86%
Goalkeeping
2Saves2
-0.64Goals Prevented-0.64
Discipline
9Fouls8
0Yellow Cards1
1Offsides1

Jupiler Pro League: Standard Liege 2–2 KV Mechelen

Standard Liege and KV Mechelen drew 2-2 in Jupiler Pro League on March 29, 2025.

Goals: A. Hountondji (21'), P. Pflücke (33'), L. Amani (41'), K. Van Rafelghem (68').

KV Mechelen controlled possession (68%) and registered 13 shots to 11.

The match was played at Stade Maurice Dufrasne in Luik.