KV Mechelen 0–0 Standard Liege: Result & Stats

KV Mechelen

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Standard Liege

12/26/2024

Jupiler Pro League · Round 20AFAS Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 16+ matches

KV Mechelen40%

×Draw25%

Standard Liege35%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KV MechelenExpected goals in this matchStandard Liege

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.44

1.32

KV Mechelen

1.44

Standard Liege

1.32

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 18 home / 16 away

1.41

creates per match

0.98

1.67

allows per match

1.47

creates per match

KV Mechelen

1.41

Standard Liege

0.98

allows per match

KV Mechelen

1.67

Standard Liege

1.47

-0.13scores less than expected

finishing

-0.10scores less than expected

finishing

KV Mechelen-0.13scores less

Standard Liege-0.10scores less

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

KV Mechelen ↓

Standard Liege →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

KV Mechelen or draw

65%

KV Mechelen or Standard Liege

75%

Draw or Standard Liege

60%

Winning margin

KV Mechelen wins by 2+

19%

Standard Liege wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

KV Mechelen 1+ goals

76%

KV Mechelen 2+ goals

42%

KV Mechelen 3+ goals

18%

Standard Liege 1+ goals

73%

Standard Liege 2+ goals

38%

Standard Liege 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

KV Mechelen (draw refunded)

54%

Standard Liege (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

KV Mechelen at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.67 · 18 matches

Standard Liege away — creates 0.98, concedes 1.47 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

KV Mechelen attack 1.41 + Standard Liege defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.44

Standard Liege attack 0.98 + KV Mechelen defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

KV Mechelen scores more

40%

level

25%

Standard Liege scores more

35%

KV Mechelen at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "KV Mechelen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

77

P. Pflücke

KV Mechelen · M

8.3

Match Events

28'

Ahmed Touba

44'

Kerim Mrabti

44'

Dennis Eckert Ayensa

59'

Sotiris Alexandropoulos

61'

B. Bafdili← G. Hairemans

61'

L. Lauberbach← P. Dahl

74'

R. Belghali← B. Raman

74'

A. Ouattara← S. Walsh

79'

Toon Raemaekers

83'

S. Doumbia← D. Dierckx

84'

J. Ngoy← K. Mrabti

87'

S. Benjdida← D. Eckert Ayensa

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

KVStandard

Overview

62%Possession38%

17Total Shots11

1.74Expected Goals (xG)0.92

3Corners1

8Fouls9

Shots

17Total Shots11

5On Target2

9Off Target2

3Blocked7

11Inside Box11

6Outside Box0

Passing

62%Possession38%

644Total Passes378

539Accurate Passes291

84%Pass Accuracy77%

Goalkeeping

2Saves5

0.52Goals Prevented0.52

Discipline

8Fouls9

3Yellow Cards2

2Offsides0