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KV Mechelen vs Standard Liege — Jupiler Pro League 2025

KV Mechelen
KV Mechelen
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Standard Liege
Standard Liege
5/10/2025Jupiler Pro LeagueJupiler Pro League · Conference League Play-off Group - 8AFAS Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 15+ matches

KV Mechelen39%
×Draw25%
Standard Liege36%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

KV Mechelen
1.42
Standard Liege
1.35

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 17 home / 15 away

creates per match

KV Mechelen
1.39
Standard Liege
0.99

allows per match

KV Mechelen
1.71
Standard Liege
1.45

finishing

KV Mechelen-0.04on par
Standard Liege-0.06on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

KV Mechelen ↓

Standard Liege →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

KV Mechelen or draw
64%
KV Mechelen or Standard Liege
75%
Draw or Standard Liege
61%

Winning margin

KV Mechelen wins by 2+
18%
Standard Liege wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

KV Mechelen 1+ goals
76%
KV Mechelen 2+ goals
41%
KV Mechelen 3+ goals
17%
Standard Liege 1+ goals
74%
Standard Liege 2+ goals
39%
Standard Liege 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

KV Mechelen (draw refunded)
52%
Standard Liege (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

KV Mechelen at home — creates 1.39, concedes 1.71 · 17 matches

Standard Liege away — creates 0.99, concedes 1.45 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

KV Mechelen attack 1.39 + Standard Liege defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.42

Standard Liege attack 0.99 + KV Mechelen defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

KV Mechelen scores more
39%
level
25%
Standard Liege scores more
36%

KV Mechelen at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "KV Mechelen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Jupiler Pro League: KV Mechelen 0–0 Standard Liege

KV Mechelen and Standard Liege drew 0-0 in Jupiler Pro League on May 10, 2025.

The match was played at AFAS Stadion in Malines.