Standard Liege 1–0 Beerschot VA: Result & Stats

Standard Liege

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Beerschot VA

S. Benjdida 72' (pen)

8/25/2024

Jupiler Pro League · Round 5Stade Maurice Dufrasne

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 54+ matches

Standard Liege54%

×Draw23%

Beerschot VA23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Standard LiegeExpected goals in this matchBeerschot VA

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.81

1.10

Standard Liege

1.81

Beerschot VA

1.10

Standard Liege creates 65% more chances

Season form · 151 home / 54 away

1.32

creates per match

1.07

1.14

allows per match

2.30

creates per match

Standard Liege

1.32

Beerschot VA

1.07

allows per match

Standard Liege

1.14

Beerschot VA

2.30

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Standard Liege+0.00on par

Beerschot VA+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Standard Liege ↓

Beerschot VA →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Standard Liege or draw

77%

Standard Liege or Beerschot VA

77%

Draw or Beerschot VA

46%

Winning margin

Standard Liege wins by 2+

30%

Beerschot VA wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Standard Liege 1+ goals

84%

Standard Liege 2+ goals

54%

Standard Liege 3+ goals

27%

Beerschot VA 1+ goals

67%

Beerschot VA 2+ goals

30%

Beerschot VA 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Standard Liege (draw refunded)

70%

Beerschot VA (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Standard Liege at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.14 · 151 matches

Beerschot VA away — creates 1.07, concedes 2.30 · 54 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Standard Liege attack 1.32 + Beerschot VA defence 2.30 → ÷2 → 1.81

Beerschot VA attack 1.07 + Standard Liege defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Standard Liege scores more

54%

level

23%

Beerschot VA scores more

23%

Standard Liege at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Standard Liege will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

4

B. Šutalo

Standard Liege · D

7.7

Match Events

44'

L. Noubi← I. Hautekiet

46'

A. Konstantopoulos← D. Tshimanga

59'

Brian PlatCard upgrade

60'

Brian Plat

63'

G. Kyei← L. Kuavita

67'

A. Kosiah← M. Weymans

67'

A. Martha← C. Keita

69'

Simion Michez

72'

S. BenjdidaPenalty

78'

Welat Cagro

80'

D. Huiberts← E. Henderson

80'

D. Wright-Phillips← W. Cagro

84'

S. Alexandropoulos← M. Bulat

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

StandardBeerschot

Overview

43%Possession57%

12Total Shots11

1.81Expected Goals (xG)1.04

2Corners1

7Fouls17

Shots

12Total Shots11

3On Target2

4Off Target6

5Blocked3

9Inside Box8

3Outside Box3

Passing

43%Possession57%

423Total Passes569

330Accurate Passes475

78%Pass Accuracy83%

Goalkeeping

2Saves2

0.15Goals Prevented0.15

Discipline

7Fouls17

0Yellow Cards2

0Red Cards1

7Offsides1