Beerschot VA 0–1 Standard Liege: Result & Stats

Beerschot VA

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Standard Liege

Klauss 64'

8/15/2021

Jupiler Pro League · Round 4Olympisch Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 53+ matches

Beerschot VA38%

×Draw25%

Standard Liege38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Beerschot VAExpected goals in this matchStandard Liege

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.46

Beerschot VA

1.46

Standard Liege

1.46

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 53 home / 151 away

1.36

creates per match

1.18

1.74

allows per match

1.56

creates per match

Beerschot VA

1.36

Standard Liege

1.18

allows per match

Beerschot VA

1.74

Standard Liege

1.56

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Beerschot VA+0.00on par

Standard Liege+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Beerschot VA ↓

Standard Liege →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Beerschot VA or draw

62%

Beerschot VA or Standard Liege

75%

Draw or Standard Liege

62%

Winning margin

Beerschot VA wins by 2+

18%

Standard Liege wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Beerschot VA 1+ goals

77%

Beerschot VA 2+ goals

43%

Beerschot VA 3+ goals

18%

Standard Liege 1+ goals

77%

Standard Liege 2+ goals

43%

Standard Liege 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Beerschot VA (draw refunded)

50%

Standard Liege (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Beerschot VA at home — creates 1.36, concedes 1.74 · 53 matches

Standard Liege away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.56 · 151 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Beerschot VA attack 1.36 + Standard Liege defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.46

Standard Liege attack 1.18 + Beerschot VA defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Beerschot VA scores more

38%

level

25%

Standard Liege scores more

38%

Beerschot VA at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Beerschot VA will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

16

A. Bodart

Standard Liege · G

8.5

Match Events

46'

56'

64'

74'

81'

M. Suzuki← I. Coulibaly

82'

Arnaud Bodart

83'

N. Ngoy← G. Cimirot

83'

O. Dumont← S. Amallah

85'

D. Van den Buijs← T. De Smet

89'

Stipe Radić

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BeerschotStandard

Overview

44%Possession56%

14Total Shots8

3Corners3

16Fouls14

Shots

14Total Shots8

4On Target1

4Off Target6

6Blocked1

9Inside Box5

5Outside Box3

Passing

44%Possession56%

374Total Passes480

272Accurate Passes387

73%Pass Accuracy81%

Goalkeeping

0Saves4

Discipline

16Fouls14

2Yellow Cards1

0Offsides1