Stal Stalowa Wola 2–0 Sandecja Nowy Sącz

Stal Stalowa Wola

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Sandecja Nowy Sącz

J. Svec 74'

K. Ibe-Torti 8'

1/28/2025

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3TBC

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Stal Stalowa Wola48%

×Draw23%

Sandecja Nowy Sącz29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Stal Stalowa WolaExpected goals in this matchSandecja Nowy Sącz

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.83

1.38

Stal Stalowa Wola

1.83

Sandecja Nowy Sącz

1.38

Stal Stalowa Wola creates 33% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 10 away

2.45

creates per match

1.30

1.45

allows per match

1.20

creates per match

Stal Stalowa Wola

2.45

Sandecja Nowy Sącz

1.30

allows per match

Stal Stalowa Wola

1.45

Sandecja Nowy Sącz

1.20

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Stal Stalowa Wola+0.00on par

Sandecja Nowy Sącz+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stal Stalowa Wola ↓

Sandecja Nowy Sącz →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Stal Stalowa Wola or draw

71%

Stal Stalowa Wola or Sandecja Nowy Sącz

77%

Draw or Sandecja Nowy Sącz

52%

Winning margin

Stal Stalowa Wola wins by 2+

26%

Sandecja Nowy Sącz wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Stal Stalowa Wola 1+ goals

84%

Stal Stalowa Wola 2+ goals

54%

Stal Stalowa Wola 3+ goals

28%

Sandecja Nowy Sącz 1+ goals

75%

Sandecja Nowy Sącz 2+ goals

40%

Sandecja Nowy Sącz 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Stal Stalowa Wola (draw refunded)

62%

Sandecja Nowy Sącz (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stal Stalowa Wola at home — creates 2.45, concedes 1.45 · 11 matches

Sandecja Nowy Sącz away — creates 1.30, concedes 1.20 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stal Stalowa Wola attack 2.45 + Sandecja Nowy Sącz defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.83

Sandecja Nowy Sącz attack 1.30 + Stal Stalowa Wola defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Stal Stalowa Wola scores more

48%

level

23%

Sandecja Nowy Sącz scores more

29%

Stal Stalowa Wola at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Stal Stalowa Wola will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

8'

K. Ibe-Torti

74'

J. Svec

Stal

Sandecja

⚽

Manager: M. Jarosz

Stal Stalowa Wola substitutes

WilkGvozdenovicOkoKukulowiczPioterczakFedejkoUrbanSvecLelek

Manager: Ł. Mierzejewski