Sandecja Nowy Sącz 2–0 Stal Stalowa Wola

Sandecja Nowy Sącz

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Stal Stalowa Wola

R. Gołębiowski 90+9'

D. Szufryn 52'

9/16/2023

II Liga - East · Round 9Stadion Garbarni przy ul. Barskiej

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Sandecja Nowy Sącz41%

×Draw26%

Stal Stalowa Wola33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sandecja Nowy SączExpected goals in this matchStal Stalowa Wola

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.39

1.23

Sandecja Nowy Sącz

1.39

Stal Stalowa Wola

1.23

Sandecja Nowy Sącz creates 13% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 52 away

1.29

creates per match

1.21

1.24

allows per match

1.48

creates per match

Sandecja Nowy Sącz

1.29

Stal Stalowa Wola

1.21

allows per match

Sandecja Nowy Sącz

1.24

Stal Stalowa Wola

1.48

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sandecja Nowy Sącz+0.00on par

Stal Stalowa Wola+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sandecja Nowy Sącz ↓

Stal Stalowa Wola →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Sandecja Nowy Sącz or draw

67%

Sandecja Nowy Sącz or Stal Stalowa Wola

74%

Draw or Stal Stalowa Wola

59%

Winning margin

Sandecja Nowy Sącz wins by 2+

19%

Stal Stalowa Wola wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Sandecja Nowy Sącz 1+ goals

75%

Sandecja Nowy Sącz 2+ goals

40%

Sandecja Nowy Sącz 3+ goals

16%

Stal Stalowa Wola 1+ goals

71%

Stal Stalowa Wola 2+ goals

35%

Stal Stalowa Wola 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Sandecja Nowy Sącz (draw refunded)

55%

Stal Stalowa Wola (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sandecja Nowy Sącz at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.24 · 34 matches

Stal Stalowa Wola away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.48 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sandecja Nowy Sącz attack 1.29 + Stal Stalowa Wola defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.39

Stal Stalowa Wola attack 1.21 + Sandecja Nowy Sącz defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Sandecja Nowy Sącz scores more

41%

level

26%

Stal Stalowa Wola scores more

33%

Sandecja Nowy Sącz at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Sandecja Nowy Sącz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

19'

25'

33'

41'

45+3'

46'

P. Kowalik← M. Bartków

46'

D. Potoma← E. Galara

46'

Ł. Seweryn← J. Kowalski

52'

D. Szufryn

59'

D. Oko

61'

R. Golebiowski

61'

M. Mydlarz

63'

M. Kwietniewski← K. Talar

63'

B. Pioterczak← A. Ziarko

64'

B. Pioterczak

68'

D. Kościelniak← J. Górski

72'

P. Rogala← J. Banach

72'

D. Maluga← D. Urban

76'

L. Klisiewicz

79'

R. Václavik← K. Słaby

79'

M. Popiela← J. Wróbel

90+3'

P. Sokol

90+7'

P. Rogala

90+9'

R. Gołębiowski

Sandecja

Stal

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

Manager: Ł. Surma

46'▲P. Kowalik←▼M. Bartków

46'▲D. Potoma←▼E. Galara

63'▲M. Kwietniewski←▼K. Talar

79'▲R. Václavik←▼K. Słaby

79'▲M. Popiela←▼J. Wróbel

Sandecja Nowy Sącz substitutes

KowalikPotomaKwietniewskiVáclavikPopiela

Manager: I. Pietrzykowski

46'▲Ł. Seweryn←▼J. Kowalski

63'▲B. Pioterczak←▼A. Ziarko

68'▲D. Kościelniak←▼J. Górski

72'▲P. Rogala←▼J. Banach

72'▲D. Maluga←▼D. Urban

Stal Stalowa Wola substitutes

SewerynPioterczakKościelniakRogalaMaluga