Stal Stalowa Wola 2–1 Sandecja Nowy Sącz

Stal Stalowa Wola

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Sandecja Nowy Sącz

A. Ziarko 86'

J. Górski 66'

R. Gołębiowski 76'

3/28/2024

II Liga - East · Round 26Podkarpackie Centrum Piłki Nożnej

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Stal Stalowa Wola44%

×Draw25%

Sandecja Nowy Sącz30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Stal Stalowa WolaExpected goals in this matchSandecja Nowy Sącz

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.51

1.21

Stal Stalowa Wola

1.51

Sandecja Nowy Sącz

1.21

Stal Stalowa Wola creates 25% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 36 away

1.63

creates per match

1.33

1.08

allows per match

1.39

creates per match

Stal Stalowa Wola

1.63

Sandecja Nowy Sącz

1.33

allows per match

Stal Stalowa Wola

1.08

Sandecja Nowy Sącz

1.39

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Stal Stalowa Wola+0.00on par

Sandecja Nowy Sącz+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stal Stalowa Wola ↓

Sandecja Nowy Sącz →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Stal Stalowa Wola or draw

70%

Stal Stalowa Wola or Sandecja Nowy Sącz

75%

Draw or Sandecja Nowy Sącz

56%

Winning margin

Stal Stalowa Wola wins by 2+

22%

Sandecja Nowy Sącz wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Stal Stalowa Wola 1+ goals

78%

Stal Stalowa Wola 2+ goals

44%

Stal Stalowa Wola 3+ goals

19%

Sandecja Nowy Sącz 1+ goals

70%

Sandecja Nowy Sącz 2+ goals

34%

Sandecja Nowy Sącz 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Stal Stalowa Wola (draw refunded)

59%

Sandecja Nowy Sącz (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stal Stalowa Wola at home — creates 1.63, concedes 1.08 · 51 matches

Sandecja Nowy Sącz away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.39 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stal Stalowa Wola attack 1.63 + Sandecja Nowy Sącz defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.51

Sandecja Nowy Sącz attack 1.33 + Stal Stalowa Wola defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Stal Stalowa Wola scores more

44%

level

25%

Sandecja Nowy Sącz scores more

30%

Stal Stalowa Wola at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Stal Stalowa Wola will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

21'

J. Kowalski

34'

T. Nawotka← B. Żołądź

37'

W. Kaminski

46'

A. Ziarko← Ł. Seweryn

63'

J. Górski← B. Pioterczak

66'

J. Górski

73'

R. Gołębiowski← M. Kwietniewski

73'

K. Talar← W. Kamiński

73'

J. Wilczyński← D. Szufryn

76'

K. Chełmecki← A. Imiela

76'

R. Gołębiowski

77'

D. Maluga← D. Urban

81'

B. Wiktoruk← Ł. Soszyński

83'

J. Banach

86'

A. Ziarko

89'

Marcinho← D. Potoma

Stal

Sandecja

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: I. Pietrzykowski

46'▲A. Ziarko←▼Ł. Seweryn

63'▲J. Górski←▼B. Pioterczak

76'▲K. Chełmecki←▼A. Imiela

77'▲D. Maluga←▼D. Urban

81'▲B. Wiktoruk←▼Ł. Soszyński

Stal Stalowa Wola substitutes

ZiarkoGórskiChełmeckiMalugaWiktoruk

Manager: R. Kasperczyk

34'▲T. Nawotka←▼B. Żołądź

73'▲R. Gołębiowski←▼M. Kwietniewski

73'▲K. Talar←▼W. Kamiński

73'▲J. Wilczyński←▼D. Szufryn

89'▲Marcinho←▼D. Potoma

Sandecja Nowy Sącz substitutes

NawotkaGołębiowskiTalarWilczyńskiMarcinho

II Liga - East: Stal Stalowa Wola 2–1 Sandecja Nowy Sącz

Stal Stalowa Wola beat Sandecja Nowy Sącz 2-1 in II Liga - East on March 28, 2024.

Goals: J. Górski (66'), R. Gołębiowski (76'), A. Ziarko (86').

The match was played at Podkarpackie Centrum Piłki Nożnej in Stalowa Wola.

Stal Stalowa Wola vs Sandecja Nowy Sącz — II Liga - East 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

II Liga - East: Stal Stalowa Wola 2–1 Sandecja Nowy Sącz