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Stal Rzeszów vs Nieciecza — I Liga 2018

Stal Rzeszów
Stal Rzeszów
FT
4 – 2
HT: 2 – 1
Nieciecza
Nieciecza
5/11/2024I LigaI Liga · Round 32Stadion Stal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 68+ matches

Stal Rzeszów37%
×Draw24%
Nieciecza39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Stal Rzeszów
1.48
Nieciecza
1.52

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 68 home / 103 away

creates per match

Stal Rzeszów
1.75
Nieciecza
1.50

allows per match

Stal Rzeszów
1.54
Nieciecza
1.22

finishing

Stal Rzeszów+0.00on par
Nieciecza+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stal Rzeszów ↓

Nieciecza →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Stal Rzeszów or draw
61%
Stal Rzeszów or Nieciecza
76%
Draw or Nieciecza
63%

Winning margin

Stal Rzeszów wins by 2+
18%
Nieciecza wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Stal Rzeszów 1+ goals
77%
Stal Rzeszów 2+ goals
43%
Stal Rzeszów 3+ goals
19%
Nieciecza 1+ goals
78%
Nieciecza 2+ goals
45%
Nieciecza 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Stal Rzeszów (draw refunded)
49%
Nieciecza (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stal Rzeszów at home — creates 1.75, concedes 1.54 · 68 matches

Nieciecza away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.22 · 103 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stal Rzeszów attack 1.75 + Nieciecza defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.48

Nieciecza attack 1.50 + Stal Rzeszów defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Stal Rzeszów scores more
37%
level
24%
Nieciecza scores more
39%

Nieciecza at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Nieciecza will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

I Liga: Stal Rzeszów 4–2 Nieciecza

Stal Rzeszów beat Nieciecza 4-2 in I Liga on May 11, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Stal in Rzeszów.