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Nieciecza vs Stal Rzeszów — I Liga 2018

Nieciecza
Nieciecza
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Stal Rzeszów
Stal Rzeszów
11/11/2023I LigaI Liga · Round 15Stadion Sportowy Bruk-Bet Termalica

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 69+ matches

Nieciecza51%
×Draw24%
Stal Rzeszów25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nieciecza
1.73
Stal Rzeszów
1.14

Nieciecza creates 52% more chances

Season form · 103 home / 69 away

creates per match

Nieciecza
1.72
Stal Rzeszów
1.19

allows per match

Nieciecza
1.08
Stal Rzeszów
1.74

finishing

Nieciecza+0.00on par
Stal Rzeszów+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nieciecza ↓

Stal Rzeszów →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Nieciecza or draw
75%
Nieciecza or Stal Rzeszów
76%
Draw or Stal Rzeszów
49%

Winning margin

Nieciecza wins by 2+
28%
Stal Rzeszów wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Nieciecza 1+ goals
82%
Nieciecza 2+ goals
52%
Nieciecza 3+ goals
25%
Stal Rzeszów 1+ goals
68%
Stal Rzeszów 2+ goals
32%
Stal Rzeszów 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Nieciecza (draw refunded)
67%
Stal Rzeszów (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nieciecza at home — creates 1.72, concedes 1.08 · 103 matches

Stal Rzeszów away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.74 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nieciecza attack 1.72 + Stal Rzeszów defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.73

Stal Rzeszów attack 1.19 + Nieciecza defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Nieciecza scores more
51%
level
24%
Stal Rzeszów scores more
25%

Nieciecza at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Nieciecza will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

I Liga: Nieciecza 1–2 Stal Rzeszów

Stal Rzeszów beat Nieciecza 2-1 in I Liga on November 11, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Sportowy Bruk-Bet Termalica in Nieciecza.