Nieciecza 8–1 Stal Rzeszów: Result & Stats

Nieciecza

FT

8 – 1

HT: 4 – 1

Stal Rzeszów

1/24/2026

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendly

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Nieciecza79%

×Draw13%

Stal Rzeszów8%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

NiecieczaExpected goals in this matchStal Rzeszów

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

3.03

0.90

Nieciecza

3.03

Stal Rzeszów

0.90

Nieciecza creates 237% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 17 away

2.58

creates per match

1.12

0.67

allows per match

3.47

creates per match

Nieciecza

2.58

Stal Rzeszów

1.12

allows per match

Nieciecza

0.67

Stal Rzeszów

3.47

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Nieciecza+0.00on par

Stal Rzeszów+0.00on par

Total goals

Over74
Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nieciecza ↓

Stal Rzeszów →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–12%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–06%

1–16%

1–22%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–09%

3–18%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–07%

4–16%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (9%) · grid covers 84% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

74%26%3.5

54%46%4.5

33%67%

Double chance

Nieciecza or draw

92%

Nieciecza or Stal Rzeszów

87%

Draw or Stal Rzeszów

21%

Winning margin

Nieciecza wins by 2+

60%

Stal Rzeszów wins by 2+

2%

Team goals

Nieciecza 1+ goals

95%

Nieciecza 2+ goals

80%

Nieciecza 3+ goals

57%

Stal Rzeszów 1+ goals

59%

Stal Rzeszów 2+ goals

23%

Stal Rzeszów 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Nieciecza (draw refunded)

91%

Stal Rzeszów (draw refunded)

9%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nieciecza at home — creates 2.58, concedes 0.67 · 12 matches

Stal Rzeszów away — creates 1.12, concedes 3.47 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nieciecza attack 2.58 + Stal Rzeszów defence 3.47 → ÷2 → 3.03

Stal Rzeszów attack 1.12 + Nieciecza defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 79%?"

Nieciecza scores more

79%

level

13%

Stal Rzeszów scores more

8%

Nieciecza at 79% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 79% does not mean "Nieciecza will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff