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Stal Mielec vs Chrobry Głogów — I Liga 2025

Stal Mielec
Stal Mielec
Preview
15:00
Chrobry Głogów
Chrobry Głogów
10/24/2026I LigaI Liga · Round 12Stadion Miejski przy Solskiego 1 w Mielcu
41%
Stal Mielec
model favours
41%25%34%

Chrobry Głogów score first in only 17% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
53%
over 2.5 goals
57%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Stal Mielec41%
×Draw25%
Chrobry Głogów34%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Stal Mielec
1.48
Chrobry Głogów
1.33

Stal Mielec creates 11% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 23 away

creates per match

Stal Mielec
1.74
Chrobry Głogów
1.13

allows per match

Stal Mielec
1.53
Chrobry Głogów
1.22

finishing

Stal Mielec+0.00on par
Chrobry Głogów+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stal Mielec ↓

Chrobry Głogów →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Stal Mielec or draw
66%
Stal Mielec or Chrobry Głogów
75%
Draw or Chrobry Głogów
59%

Winning margin

Stal Mielec wins by 2+
20%
Chrobry Głogów wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Stal Mielec 1+ goals
77%
Stal Mielec 2+ goals
43%
Stal Mielec 3+ goals
19%
Chrobry Głogów 1+ goals
74%
Chrobry Głogów 2+ goals
38%
Chrobry Głogów 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Stal Mielec (draw refunded)
55%
Chrobry Głogów (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stal Mielec at home — creates 1.74, concedes 1.53 · 19 matches

Chrobry Głogów away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.22 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stal Mielec attack 1.74 + Chrobry Głogów defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.48

Chrobry Głogów attack 1.13 + Stal Mielec defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Stal Mielec scores more
41%
level
25%
Chrobry Głogów scores more
34%

Stal Mielec at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Stal Mielec will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Chrobry Głogów have scored in 12 games running
  • 83% of Chrobry Głogów’s matches go over 2.5 goals
  • Stal Mielec win just 6% against the top half (vs 56% against the bottom)
  • Stal Mielec sit 15, Chrobry Głogów 4 in the table

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Mielec
LWLW
Głogów
WLLWL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Stal Mielec host Chrobry Głogów

October 24, 2026: Stal Mielec take on Chrobry Głogów in I Liga. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Stal Mielec host Chrobry Głogów at Stadion Miejski przy Solskiego 1 w Mielcu.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.