Chrobry Głogów 1–0 Stal Mielec: Result & Stats

Chrobry Głogów

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Stal Mielec

M. Lebedyński 59'

10/27/2019

I Liga · Round 15Stadion GOS

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Chrobry Głogów44%

×Draw24%

Stal Mielec32%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Chrobry GłogówExpected goals in this matchStal Mielec

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.67

1.39

Chrobry Głogów

1.67

Stal Mielec

1.39

Chrobry Głogów creates 20% more chances

Season form · 43 home / 19 away

1.40

creates per match

1.26

1.51

allows per match

1.95

creates per match

Chrobry Głogów

1.40

Stal Mielec

1.26

allows per match

Chrobry Głogów

1.51

Stal Mielec

1.95

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Chrobry Głogów+0.00on par

Stal Mielec+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chrobry Głogów ↓

Stal Mielec →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Chrobry Głogów or draw

68%

Chrobry Głogów or Stal Mielec

76%

Draw or Stal Mielec

56%

Winning margin

Chrobry Głogów wins by 2+

23%

Stal Mielec wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Chrobry Głogów 1+ goals

81%

Chrobry Głogów 2+ goals

50%

Chrobry Głogów 3+ goals

23%

Stal Mielec 1+ goals

75%

Stal Mielec 2+ goals

40%

Stal Mielec 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Chrobry Głogów (draw refunded)

58%

Stal Mielec (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chrobry Głogów at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.51 · 43 matches

Stal Mielec away — creates 1.26, concedes 1.95 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chrobry Głogów attack 1.40 + Stal Mielec defence 1.95 → ÷2 → 1.67

Stal Mielec attack 1.26 + Chrobry Głogów defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Chrobry Głogów scores more

44%

level

24%

Stal Mielec scores more

32%

Chrobry Głogów at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Chrobry Głogów will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

32'

M. Pawlik

37'

A. Paluchowski← A. Prokić

59'

M. Lebedyński

63'

M. Urbańczyk← M. Mak

76'

D. Kowalczyk← M. Lebedyński

80'

K. Kubica← A. Benedyczak

81'

Mateusz Żyro← W. Lisowski

90'

D. Piotrowski← M. Kozak

Chrobry

Stal

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Lebedyńsk

▼

Benedycza

Manager: I. Djurdjevic

76'▲D. Kowalczyk←▼M. Lebedyński

80'▲K. Kubica←▼A. Benedyczak

90'▲D. Piotrowski←▼M. Kozak

Chrobry Głogów substitutes

KowalczykKubicaPiotrowski

Manager: D. Marzec

37'▲A. Paluchowski←▼A. Prokić

63'▲M. Urbańczyk←▼M. Mak

81'▲Mateusz Żyro←▼W. Lisowski

Stal Mielec substitutes

PaluchowskiUrbańczykŻyro

Match Recap: Chrobry Głogów vs Stal Mielec

Chrobry Głogów beat Stal Mielec 1-0 in I Liga on October 27, 2019.

Goals: M. Lebedyński (59').

The match was played at Stadion GOS in Głogów.

Chrobry Głogów vs Stal Mielec — I Liga 2025

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Chrobry Głogów vs Stal Mielec