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Stal Mielec vs Chrobry Głogów — I Liga 2025

Stal Mielec
Stal Mielec
FT
5 – 1
HT: 3 – 0
Chrobry Głogów
Chrobry Głogów
J. Šoljić 68' (pen)
K. Getinger 63'
L. Janoszka 45+2', 6'
Jonathan De Amo 44'
O. Repka 70'
4/28/2019I LigaI Liga · Round 31Stadion MOSiR (Mielec)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Stal Mielec49%
×Draw24%
Chrobry Głogów27%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Stal Mielec
1.71
Chrobry Głogów
1.21

Stal Mielec creates 41% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 42 away

creates per match

Stal Mielec
1.86
Chrobry Głogów
0.98

allows per match

Stal Mielec
1.43
Chrobry Głogów
1.55

finishing

Stal Mielec+0.00on par
Chrobry Głogów+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stal Mielec ↓

Chrobry Głogów →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Stal Mielec or draw
73%
Stal Mielec or Chrobry Głogów
76%
Draw or Chrobry Głogów
51%

Winning margin

Stal Mielec wins by 2+
26%
Chrobry Głogów wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Stal Mielec 1+ goals
82%
Stal Mielec 2+ goals
51%
Stal Mielec 3+ goals
24%
Chrobry Głogów 1+ goals
70%
Chrobry Głogów 2+ goals
34%
Chrobry Głogów 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Stal Mielec (draw refunded)
64%
Chrobry Głogów (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stal Mielec at home — creates 1.86, concedes 1.43 · 21 matches

Chrobry Głogów away — creates 0.98, concedes 1.55 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stal Mielec attack 1.86 + Chrobry Głogów defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.71

Chrobry Głogów attack 0.98 + Stal Mielec defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Stal Mielec scores more
49%
level
24%
Chrobry Głogów scores more
27%

Stal Mielec at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Stal Mielec will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

6'
L. Janoszka
44'
Jonathan De Amo
45+2'
L. Janoszka
63'
K. Getinger
68'
J. ŠoljićPenalty
70'
O. Repka

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

I Liga: Stal Mielec 5–1 Chrobry Głogów

Stal Mielec beat Chrobry Głogów 5-1 in I Liga on April 28, 2019.

Goals: L. Janoszka (6', 45+2'), Jonathan De Amo (44'), K. Getinger (63'), J. Šoljić (68' pen), O. Repka (70').

The match was played at Stadion MOSiR (Mielec).