Stal Mielec vs Chrobry Głogów — I Liga 2025
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 21+ matches
Stal Mielec48%
Chrobry Głogów28%✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Stal Mielec creates 39% more chances
Season form · 21 home / 32 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over54
- Under46
3+ goals likely
Both teams score
- Yes56
- No44
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Stal Mielec ↓
Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Stal Mielec at home — creates 1.86, concedes 1.43 · 21 matches
Chrobry Głogów away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.44 · 32 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Stal Mielec attack 1.86 + Chrobry Głogów defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.65
Chrobry Głogów attack 0.94 + Stal Mielec defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.19
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 48%?"
Stal Mielec at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 48% does not mean "Stal Mielec will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Events
Stal Mielec substitutes
Wisla Krakow
Wieczysta Kraków
Slask WroclawChrobry Głogów
ŁKS Łódź
Ruch Chorzów
Polonia Warszawa
Miedz Legnica
Puszcza Niepołomice
Polonia Bytom
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki
Odra Opole
Stal Rzeszów
Pogoń SiedlceStal Mielec
Znicz Pruszków
Górnik Łęczna
Tychy 71If points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Stal Mielec host Chrobry Głogów on Friday, 3 October 2025 at 16:00. The match is part of the I Liga 2025/2026 season.
Match Recap: Stal Mielec vs Chrobry Głogów
Chrobry Głogów beat Stal Mielec 2-1 in I Liga on October 3, 2025.
Goals: A. Diez (77'), M. Mazur (80'), R. Mandrysz (84').
The match was played at Stadion Miejski przy Solskiego 1 w Mielcu in Mielec.