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Stade Lausanne-Ouchy vs FC Winterthur — Super League 2025

Stade Lausanne-Ouchy
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
FC Winterthur
FC Winterthur
A. Turkes 68'
4/14/2024Super LeagueSuper League · Round 32Stade Olympique de la Pontaise

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Stade Lausanne-Ouchy35%
×Draw22%
FC Winterthur43%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Stade Lausanne-Ouchy
1.73
FC Winterthur
1.94

FC Winterthur creates 12% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 5 away

creates per match

Stade Lausanne-Ouchy
1.03
FC Winterthur
1.85

allows per match

Stade Lausanne-Ouchy
2.02
FC Winterthur
2.44

finishing

Stade Lausanne-Ouchy-0.03on par
FC Winterthur-0.45scores less

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stade Lausanne-Ouchy ↓

FC Winterthur →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–25%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–28%
1–35%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Stade Lausanne-Ouchy or draw
57%
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy or FC Winterthur
78%
Draw or FC Winterthur
65%

Winning margin

Stade Lausanne-Ouchy wins by 2+
18%
FC Winterthur wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 1+ goals
82%
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 2+ goals
52%
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 3+ goals
25%
FC Winterthur 1+ goals
86%
FC Winterthur 2+ goals
58%
FC Winterthur 3+ goals
30%

Draw no bet

Stade Lausanne-Ouchy (draw refunded)
45%
FC Winterthur (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stade Lausanne-Ouchy at home — creates 1.03, concedes 2.02 · 6 matches

FC Winterthur away — creates 1.85, concedes 2.44 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stade Lausanne-Ouchy attack 1.03 + FC Winterthur defence 2.44 → ÷2 → 1.73

FC Winterthur attack 1.85 + Stade Lausanne-Ouchy defence 2.02 → ÷2 → 1.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Stade Lausanne-Ouchy scores more
35%
level
22%
FC Winterthur scores more
43%

FC Winterthur at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "FC Winterthur will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

4
B. StillhartFC WinterthurFC Winterthur · M
8.2

Match Events

27'
Sahmkou CamaraCard upgrade
28'
Sahmkou Camara
44'
Adrian Gantenbein
46'
N. Burkart← A. Gantenbein
52'
Sayfallah LtaiefGoal cancelled
64'
I. Diakité← L. Gassama
67'
A. Turkes← A. Baroan
68'
A. Turkes↳ B. Stillhart
78'
V. Hamdiu← R. Bayard
78'
V. Damaşcan← A. Ajdini
82'
T. Corbaz← M. Di Giusto
83'
M. Qarri← E. Mahmoud
84'
Giovani Bamba← E. Akichi
90'
A. Durrer← R. Schneider
90'
C. Chiappetta← S. Ltaief

Possession

52%Stade

Shots

4Stade

Pass accuracy

50%Stade

Statistics

StadeFC
Overview
52%Possession48%
4Total Shots15
0.10Expected Goals (xG)1.83
4Corners2
6Fouls12
Shots
4Total Shots15
1On Target7
2Off Target6
1Blocked2
2Inside Box12
2Outside Box3
Passing
52%Possession48%
426Total Passes389
350Accurate Passes321
82%Pass Accuracy83%
Goalkeeping
5Saves1
Discipline
6Fouls12
0Yellow Cards1
1Red Cards0
0Offsides8

Match Recap: Stade Lausanne-Ouchy vs FC Winterthur

FC Winterthur beat Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 1-0 in Super League on April 14, 2024.

Goals: A. Turkes (68').

Stade Lausanne-Ouchy controlled possession (52%) and registered 4 shots to 15.

The match was played at Stade Olympique de la Pontaise in Lausanne.