FC Winterthur 2–1 Stade Lausanne-Ouchy

FC Winterthur

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Stade Lausanne-Ouchy

R. Alves 85' (pen)

S. Ltaief 73'

M. Qarri 39'

4/2/2022

League #208 · Round 28Stadion Schützenwiese

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

FC Winterthur30%

×Draw22%

Stade Lausanne-Ouchy48%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FC WinterthurExpected goals in this matchStade Lausanne-Ouchy

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.53

1.97

FC Winterthur

1.53

Stade Lausanne-Ouchy

1.97

Stade Lausanne-Ouchy creates 29% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 5 away

1.67

creates per match

1.60

2.33

allows per match

1.40

creates per match

FC Winterthur

1.67

Stade Lausanne-Ouchy

1.60

allows per match

FC Winterthur

2.33

Stade Lausanne-Ouchy

1.40

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FC Winterthur+0.00on par

Stade Lausanne-Ouchy+0.00on par

Total goals

Over68
Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes67
No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Winterthur ↓

Stade Lausanne-Ouchy →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–16%

0–26%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–05%

1–19%

1–29%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

68%32%3.5

46%54%4.5

27%73%

Double chance

FC Winterthur or draw

52%

FC Winterthur or Stade Lausanne-Ouchy

78%

Draw or Stade Lausanne-Ouchy

70%

Winning margin

FC Winterthur wins by 2+

14%

Stade Lausanne-Ouchy wins by 2+

27%

Team goals

FC Winterthur 1+ goals

78%

FC Winterthur 2+ goals

45%

FC Winterthur 3+ goals

20%

Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 1+ goals

86%

Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 2+ goals

58%

Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 3+ goals

31%

Draw no bet

FC Winterthur (draw refunded)

39%

Stade Lausanne-Ouchy (draw refunded)

61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

58%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Winterthur at home — creates 1.67, concedes 2.33 · 3 matches

Stade Lausanne-Ouchy away — creates 1.60, concedes 1.40 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Winterthur attack 1.67 + Stade Lausanne-Ouchy defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.53

Stade Lausanne-Ouchy attack 1.60 + FC Winterthur defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 1.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

FC Winterthur scores more

30%

level

22%

Stade Lausanne-Ouchy scores more

48%

Stade Lausanne-Ouchy at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Stade Lausanne-Ouchy will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

13'

32'

34'

39'

43'

48'

49'

57'

57'

60'

67'

67'

S. Ltaief← E. Abedini

67'

Giovani Bamba← A. Laugeois

67'

73'

73'

83'

85'

R. AlvesPenalty

FC

Stade

71

3

5

38

22

7

▼

Laugeois

28

Bayard

31

▼

Kamber

69

Chader

96

Labeau

10

⚽

▼

1

23

3

20

4

▼

Isik

14

Corbaz

8

▼

Ramizi

10

⚽

Alves

11

▼

Abedini

29

Manzambi

22

Tushi

Manager: R. Loose

43'▲P. Hammer←▼G. Isik

67'▲R. Buess←▼S. Ramizi

67'▲S. Ltaief←▼E. Abedini

FC Winterthur substitutes

34Hammer9Buess24Ltaief16Arnold19Gantenbein25Chiappetta28Diaby35Dakaj36Pukaj

Manager: M. Kodro

60'▲R. Kadima←▼R. Kamber

67'▲Giovani Bamba←▼A. Laugeois

67'▲M. Asllani←▼M. Qarri

Stade Lausanne-Ouchy substitutes

23Kadima6Bamba21Asllani8Cueni17Ajdini19Steffen20Hefti27Hadji72Okou