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FC Winterthur vs Stade Lausanne-Ouchy — Super League 2025

FC Winterthur
FC Winterthur
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy
A. Turkes 40'
M. Di Giusto 31'
L. Pos 38'
9/23/2023Super LeagueSuper League · Round 7Stadion Schützenwiese

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

FC Winterthur38%
×Draw21%
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy40%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Winterthur
1.88
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy
1.94

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 20 home / 6 away

creates per match

FC Winterthur
1.25
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy
1.67

allows per match

FC Winterthur
2.20
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy
2.50

finishing

FC Winterthur+0.00on par
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

72%Yes
  • Yes72
  • No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Winterthur ↓

Stade Lausanne-Ouchy →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–24%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–15%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
53%47%4.5
33%67%

Double chance

FC Winterthur or draw
60%
FC Winterthur or Stade Lausanne-Ouchy
79%
Draw or Stade Lausanne-Ouchy
62%

Winning margin

FC Winterthur wins by 2+
20%
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

FC Winterthur 1+ goals
85%
FC Winterthur 2+ goals
56%
FC Winterthur 3+ goals
29%
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 1+ goals
86%
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 2+ goals
58%
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 3+ goals
30%

Draw no bet

FC Winterthur (draw refunded)
49%
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
64%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Winterthur at home — creates 1.25, concedes 2.20 · 20 matches

Stade Lausanne-Ouchy away — creates 1.67, concedes 2.50 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Winterthur attack 1.25 + Stade Lausanne-Ouchy defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 1.88

Stade Lausanne-Ouchy attack 1.67 + FC Winterthur defence 2.20 → ÷2 → 1.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

FC Winterthur scores more
38%
level
21%
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy scores more
40%

Stade Lausanne-Ouchy at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Stade Lausanne-Ouchy will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10
M. Di GiustoFC WinterthurFC Winterthur · M
8.7

Match Events

12'
Ogou Akichi
31'
M. Di Giusto↳ T. Schättin
34'
Florian Danho
38'
L. Pos↳ Ismaël Gharbi
40'
A. Turkes↳ M. Di Giusto
46'
E. Essiam← R. Bayard
46'
S. Camara← L. Pos
47'
Aldin Turkeš
51'
Linus Obexer
59'
Emmanuel Essiam
62'
M. Abdallah← L. Obexer
63'
Y. Schmid← B. Stillhart
63'
S. Sidler← M. Di Giusto
69'
R. Arnold← G. Lekaj
72'
M. Qarri← Ismaël Gharbi
72'
L. Mulaj← A. Ajdini
82'
N. Burkart← S. Ballet
82'
R. Schneider← S. Ltaief
90'
Remo Arnold

Possession

43%FC

Shots

13FC

Pass accuracy

49%FC

Statistics

FCStade
Overview
43%Possession57%
13Total Shots15
2.59Expected Goals (xG)1.70
5Corners7
16Fouls14
Shots
13Total Shots15
4On Target4
6Off Target6
3Blocked5
10Inside Box10
3Outside Box5
Passing
43%Possession57%
295Total Passes392
215Accurate Passes302
73%Pass Accuracy77%
Goalkeeping
3Saves2
Discipline
16Fouls14
2Yellow Cards4
1Offsides2

Match Recap: FC Winterthur vs Stade Lausanne-Ouchy

FC Winterthur beat Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 2-1 in Super League on September 23, 2023.

Goals: M. Di Giusto (31'), L. Pos (38'), A. Turkes (40').

Stade Lausanne-Ouchy controlled possession (57%) and registered 15 shots to 13.

The match was played at Stadion Schützenwiese in Winterthur.