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Stade Lausanne-Ouchy vs BSC Young Boys — Super League 2018

Stade Lausanne-Ouchy
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 3
BSC Young Boys
BSC Young Boys
12/16/2023Super LeagueSuper League · Round 18Stade Olympique de la Pontaise

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Stade Lausanne-Ouchy35%
×Draw24%
BSC Young Boys41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Stade Lausanne-Ouchy
1.45
BSC Young Boys
1.58

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 6 home / 8 away

creates per match

Stade Lausanne-Ouchy
1.03
BSC Young Boys
1.15

allows per match

Stade Lausanne-Ouchy
2.02
BSC Young Boys
1.86

finishing

Stade Lausanne-Ouchy-0.03on par
BSC Young Boys+0.60scores more

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stade Lausanne-Ouchy ↓

BSC Young Boys →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Stade Lausanne-Ouchy or draw
59%
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy or BSC Young Boys
76%
Draw or BSC Young Boys
65%

Winning margin

Stade Lausanne-Ouchy wins by 2+
16%
BSC Young Boys wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 1+ goals
77%
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 2+ goals
42%
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 3+ goals
18%
BSC Young Boys 1+ goals
79%
BSC Young Boys 2+ goals
47%
BSC Young Boys 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Stade Lausanne-Ouchy (draw refunded)
46%
BSC Young Boys (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stade Lausanne-Ouchy at home — creates 1.03, concedes 2.02 · 6 matches

BSC Young Boys away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.86 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stade Lausanne-Ouchy attack 1.03 + BSC Young Boys defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.45

BSC Young Boys attack 1.15 + Stade Lausanne-Ouchy defence 2.02 → ÷2 → 1.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Stade Lausanne-Ouchy scores more
35%
level
24%
BSC Young Boys scores more
41%

BSC Young Boys at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "BSC Young Boys will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Stade Lausanne-Ouchy vs BSC Young Boys

BSC Young Boys beat Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 3-1 in Super League on December 16, 2023.

The match was played at Stade Olympique de la Pontaise in Lausanne.