Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 0–1 BSC Young Boys

Stade Lausanne-Ouchy

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

BSC Young Boys

9/17/2022

Schweizer Cup · 2nd RoundStade Olympique de la Pontaise

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Stade Lausanne-Ouchy17%

×Draw18%

BSC Young Boys64%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Stade Lausanne-OuchyExpected goals in this matchBSC Young Boys

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.21

2.45

Stade Lausanne-Ouchy

1.21

BSC Young Boys

2.45

BSC Young Boys creates 102% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 22 away

1.38

creates per match

3.77

1.13

allows per match

1.05

creates per match

Stade Lausanne-Ouchy

1.38

BSC Young Boys

3.77

allows per match

Stade Lausanne-Ouchy

1.13

BSC Young Boys

1.05

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Stade Lausanne-Ouchy+0.00on par

BSC Young Boys+0.00on par

Total goals

Over70
Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stade Lausanne-Ouchy ↓

BSC Young Boys →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–16%

0–28%

0–36%

0–44%

1

1–03%

1–18%

1–29%

1–38%

1–45%

2

2–02%

2–15%

2–26%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

70%30%3.5

49%51%4.5

30%70%

Double chance

Stade Lausanne-Ouchy or draw

36%

Stade Lausanne-Ouchy or BSC Young Boys

82%

Draw or BSC Young Boys

83%

Winning margin

Stade Lausanne-Ouchy wins by 2+

7%

BSC Young Boys wins by 2+

42%

Team goals

Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 1+ goals

70%

Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 2+ goals

34%

Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 3+ goals

12%

BSC Young Boys 1+ goals

91%

BSC Young Boys 2+ goals

70%

BSC Young Boys 3+ goals

44%

Draw no bet

Stade Lausanne-Ouchy (draw refunded)

21%

BSC Young Boys (draw refunded)

79%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

56%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stade Lausanne-Ouchy at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.13 · 8 matches

BSC Young Boys away — creates 3.77, concedes 1.05 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stade Lausanne-Ouchy attack 1.38 + BSC Young Boys defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.21

BSC Young Boys attack 3.77 + Stade Lausanne-Ouchy defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 2.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Stade Lausanne-Ouchy scores more

17%

level

18%

BSC Young Boys scores more

64%

BSC Young Boys at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "BSC Young Boys will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff