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BSC Young Boys vs Stade Lausanne-Ouchy — Super League 2018

BSC Young Boys
BSC Young Boys
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy
12/6/2023Super LeagueSuper League · Round 5Stadion Wankdorf

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

BSC Young Boys64%
×Draw20%
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

BSC Young Boys
2.21
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy
1.03

BSC Young Boys creates 115% more chances

Season form · 147 home / 20 away

creates per match

BSC Young Boys
2.56
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy
1.15

allows per match

BSC Young Boys
0.92
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy
1.85

finishing

BSC Young Boys+0.00on par
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

BSC Young Boys ↓

Stade Lausanne-Ouchy →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

BSC Young Boys or draw
83%
BSC Young Boys or Stade Lausanne-Ouchy
80%
Draw or Stade Lausanne-Ouchy
36%

Winning margin

BSC Young Boys wins by 2+
41%
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

BSC Young Boys 1+ goals
89%
BSC Young Boys 2+ goals
65%
BSC Young Boys 3+ goals
38%
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 1+ goals
64%
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 2+ goals
28%
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

BSC Young Boys (draw refunded)
79%
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

BSC Young Boys at home — creates 2.56, concedes 0.92 · 147 matches

Stade Lausanne-Ouchy away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.85 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

BSC Young Boys attack 2.56 + Stade Lausanne-Ouchy defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 2.21

Stade Lausanne-Ouchy attack 1.15 + BSC Young Boys defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

BSC Young Boys scores more
64%
level
20%
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy scores more
17%

BSC Young Boys at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "BSC Young Boys will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Super League: BSC Young Boys 1–0 Stade Lausanne-Ouchy

BSC Young Boys beat Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 1-0 in Super League on December 6, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Wankdorf in Bern.