Stade Brestois 29 vs Lorient — Ligue 1 2018
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on xG from last 26+ matches
Stade Brestois 2948%
Lorient28%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Stade Brestois 29 creates 38% more chances
Season form · 26 home / 26 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over53
- Under47
3+ goals likely
Both teams score
- Yes55
- No45
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Stade Brestois 29 ↓
Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Stade Brestois 29 at home — creates 1.52, concedes 1.30 · 26 matches
Lorient away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.70 · 26 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Stade Brestois 29 attack 1.52 + Lorient defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.61
Lorient attack 1.04 + Stade Brestois 29 defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.17
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 48%?"
Stade Brestois 29 at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 48% does not mean "Stade Brestois 29 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Player of the match
Match Events
Paris Saint Germain
Lille
Lyon
Saint Etienne
Marseille
Montpellier
Nice
Reims
Nimes
Rennes
Strasbourg
Nantes
Angers
Bordeaux
Amiens
Toulouse
Monaco
Dijon
Caen
GuingampIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Possession
Shots
Pass accuracy
Statistics
Stade Brestois 29 host Lorient on Wednesday, 20 December 2023 at 20:00. The match is part of the Ligue 1 2018/2019 season.
Match Recap: Stade Brestois 29 vs Lorient
Stade Brestois 29 beat Lorient 4-0 in Ligue 1 on December 20, 2023.
Goals: K. Doumbia (22', 25', 29', 45+3').
Stade Brestois 29 controlled possession (60%) and registered 12 shots to 7.
The match was played at Stade Francis-Le Blé in Brest.