Lorient 0–1 Stade Brestois 29: Result & Stats

Lorient

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Stade Brestois 29

R. Del Castillo 86'

3/31/2024

Ligue 1 · Round 27Stade du Moustoir - Yves Allainmat

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 26+ matches

Lorient47%

×Draw26%

Stade Brestois 2928%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LorientExpected goals in this matchStade Brestois 29

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.51

1.10

Lorient

1.51

Stade Brestois 29

1.10

Lorient creates 37% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 27 away

1.32

creates per match

1.04

1.17

allows per match

1.70

creates per match

Lorient

1.32

Stade Brestois 29

1.04

allows per match

Lorient

1.17

Stade Brestois 29

1.70

+0.10scores more than expected

finishing

+0.07on par

finishing

Lorient+0.10scores more

Stade Brestois 29+0.07on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lorient ↓

Stade Brestois 29 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

27%73%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Lorient or draw

72%

Lorient or Stade Brestois 29

74%

Draw or Stade Brestois 29

53%

Winning margin

Lorient wins by 2+

23%

Stade Brestois 29 wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Lorient 1+ goals

78%

Lorient 2+ goals

44%

Lorient 3+ goals

19%

Stade Brestois 29 1+ goals

67%

Stade Brestois 29 2+ goals

30%

Stade Brestois 29 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Lorient (draw refunded)

63%

Stade Brestois 29 (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lorient at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.17 · 26 matches

Stade Brestois 29 away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.70 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lorient attack 1.32 + Stade Brestois 29 defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.51

Stade Brestois 29 attack 1.04 + Lorient defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Lorient scores more

47%

level

26%

Stade Brestois 29 scores more

28%

Lorient at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Lorient will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

95

S. Touré

Lorient · D

8.2

Match Events

30'

Nathaniel AdjeiPenalty cancelled

45+1'

Kenny Lala

64'

R. Del Castillo← J. Le Douaron

64'

K. Doumbia← H. Magnetti

68'

A. Kari← J. Ponceau

68'

T. Le Bris← P. Katseris

73'

S. Mounié← Mathias Pereira Lage

74'

E. Kroupi← B. Bouanani

74'

76'

80'

80'

82'

86'

R. Del Castillo↳ K. Doumbia

89'

J. Le Cardinal← M. Satriano

89'

B. Brahimi← M. Camara

90+6'

Billal Brahimi

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

LorientStade

Overview

55%Possession45%

11Total Shots10

1.04Expected Goals (xG)0.49

6Corners4

10Fouls18

Shots

11Total Shots10

5On Target2

5Off Target5

1Blocked3

7Inside Box6

4Outside Box4

Passing

55%Possession45%

490Total Passes408

403Accurate Passes327

82%Pass Accuracy80%

Goalkeeping

0Saves5

Discipline

10Fouls18

1Yellow Cards3

0Red Cards1

5Offsides0

Match Recap: Lorient vs Stade Brestois 29

Stade Brestois 29 beat Lorient 1-0 in Ligue 1 on March 31, 2024.

Goals: R. Del Castillo (86').

Lorient controlled possession (55%) and registered 11 shots to 10.

The match was played at Stade du Moustoir - Yves Allainmat in Lorient.

Lorient vs Stade Brestois 29 — Ligue 1 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Lorient vs Stade Brestois 29