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Lorient vs Stade Brestois 29 — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Lorient
Lorient
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Stade Brestois 29
Stade Brestois 29
7/20/2024Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Stade de Mané-Braz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Lorient37%
×Draw29%
Stade Brestois 2934%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lorient
1.17
Stade Brestois 29
1.10

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 10 home / 7 away

creates per match

Lorient
0.90
Stade Brestois 29
1.71

allows per match

Lorient
0.50
Stade Brestois 29
1.43

finishing

Lorient+0.00on par
Stade Brestois 29+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lorient ↓

Stade Brestois 29 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Lorient or draw
66%
Lorient or Stade Brestois 29
71%
Draw or Stade Brestois 29
63%

Winning margin

Lorient wins by 2+
16%
Stade Brestois 29 wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Lorient 1+ goals
69%
Lorient 2+ goals
33%
Lorient 3+ goals
11%
Stade Brestois 29 1+ goals
67%
Stade Brestois 29 2+ goals
30%
Stade Brestois 29 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Lorient (draw refunded)
52%
Stade Brestois 29 (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lorient at home — creates 0.90, concedes 0.50 · 10 matches

Stade Brestois 29 away — creates 1.71, concedes 1.43 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lorient attack 0.90 + Stade Brestois 29 defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.17

Stade Brestois 29 attack 1.71 + Lorient defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Lorient scores more
37%
level
29%
Stade Brestois 29 scores more
34%

Lorient at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Lorient will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Friendlies Clubs: Lorient 1–1 Stade Brestois 29

Lorient and Stade Brestois 29 drew 1-1 in Friendlies Clubs on July 20, 2024.

The match was played at Stade de Mané-Braz in Inzinzac-Lochrist.