Stabaek 1–1 Valerenga: Result & Stats | Eliteserien

Stabaek

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Valerenga

Andreas Hanche-Olsen 65'

Mayron George 48'

8/14/2019

Eliteserien · Round 9Nadderud

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Stabaek37%

×Draw25%

Valerenga37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

StabaekExpected goals in this matchValerenga

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.40

Stabaek

1.40

Valerenga

1.40

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 6 home / 30 away

1.09

creates per match

1.14

1.65

allows per match

1.71

creates per match

Stabaek

1.09

Valerenga

1.14

allows per match

Stabaek

1.65

Valerenga

1.71

-0.09on par

finishing

+0.06on par

finishing

Stabaek-0.09on par

Valerenga+0.06on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stabaek ↓

Valerenga →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–19%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Stabaek or draw

63%

Stabaek or Valerenga

75%

Draw or Valerenga

63%

Winning margin

Stabaek wins by 2+

17%

Valerenga wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Stabaek 1+ goals

75%

Stabaek 2+ goals

41%

Stabaek 3+ goals

17%

Valerenga 1+ goals

75%

Valerenga 2+ goals

41%

Valerenga 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Stabaek (draw refunded)

50%

Valerenga (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stabaek at home — creates 1.09, concedes 1.65 · 6 matches

Valerenga away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.71 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stabaek attack 1.09 + Valerenga defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.40

Valerenga attack 1.14 + Stabaek defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Stabaek scores more

37%

level

25%

Valerenga scores more

37%

Stabaek at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Stabaek will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9

Mayron George

Valerenga · F

7.7

Match Events

14'

Christian Dahle Borchgrevink← Efrain Juarez

38'

41'

48'

57'

63'

Tortol Lumanza← Daniel Braaten

65'

Andreas Hanche-Olsen↳ Ronald Hernández

67'

Bard Finne← Mayron George

72'

Christian Dahle Borchgrevink

74'

Vadim Demidov

81'

Ronald Hernández

82'

Bard Finne

83'

Kosuke Kinoshita← Kasper Junker

83'

Deyver Vega← Herolind Shala

90'

Deyver Vega

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

StabaekValerenga

Overview

47%Possession53%

5Total Shots12

3Corners4

19Fouls15

Shots

5Total Shots12

3On Target4

1Off Target6

1Blocked2

3Inside Box7

2Outside Box5

Passing

47%Possession53%

394Total Passes429

307Accurate Passes347

78%Pass Accuracy81%

Goalkeeping

3Saves2

Discipline

19Fouls15

3Yellow Cards5

2Offsides1