St. Pauli U19 3–1 Magdeburg U19: Result & Stats

St. Pauli U19

FT

3 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Magdeburg U19

M. Stüven 88'

T. Hoffmann 76'

E. Eroglu 51'

B. Hamidovic 64'

9/14/2024

U19 Bundesliga · 1st Group Stage - 6Sportanlage Königskinderweg

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 61+ matches

St. Pauli U1947%

×Draw21%

Magdeburg U1932%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

St. Pauli U19Expected goals in this matchMagdeburg U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.10

1.73

St. Pauli U19

2.10

Magdeburg U19

1.73

St. Pauli U19 creates 21% more chances

Season form · 76 home / 61 away

1.91

creates per match

2.02

1.43

allows per match

2.30

creates per match

St. Pauli U19

1.91

Magdeburg U19

2.02

allows per match

St. Pauli U19

1.43

Magdeburg U19

2.30

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

St. Pauli U19+0.00on par

Magdeburg U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over73
Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes72
No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

St. Pauli U19 ↓

Magdeburg U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–18%

1–27%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–16%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

73%27%3.5

53%47%4.5

33%67%

Double chance

St. Pauli U19 or draw

68%

St. Pauli U19 or Magdeburg U19

79%

Draw or Magdeburg U19

53%

Winning margin

St. Pauli U19 wins by 2+

27%

Magdeburg U19 wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

St. Pauli U19 1+ goals

88%

St. Pauli U19 2+ goals

62%

St. Pauli U19 3+ goals

35%

Magdeburg U19 1+ goals

82%

Magdeburg U19 2+ goals

52%

Magdeburg U19 3+ goals

25%

Draw no bet

St. Pauli U19 (draw refunded)

59%

Magdeburg U19 (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

64%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

St. Pauli U19 at home — creates 1.91, concedes 1.43 · 76 matches

Magdeburg U19 away — creates 2.02, concedes 2.30 · 61 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

St. Pauli U19 attack 1.91 + Magdeburg U19 defence 2.30 → ÷2 → 2.10

Magdeburg U19 attack 2.02 + St. Pauli U19 defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

St. Pauli U19 scores more

47%

level

21%

Magdeburg U19 scores more

32%

St. Pauli U19 at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "St. Pauli U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

36'

M. Stüven← T. Hense

51'

E. Eroglu

64'

B. Hamidovic

67'

N. Schmidt← O. Backhaus

67'

L. Grabenberg← M. Kadner

72'

K. Madumere← M. Adrian

76'

T. Hoffmann

78'

M. Amaniampong← T. Hoffmann

78'

W. Alimov← N. Schöning

88'

M. Stüven

St.

Magdeburg

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Hoffmann

▼

Hense

⚽

Eroglu

Manager: N. Schick

36'▲M. Stüven←▼T. Hense

67'▲N. Schmidt←▼O. Backhaus

78'▲M. Amaniampong←▼T. Hoffmann

78'▲W. Alimov←▼N. Schöning

St. Pauli U19 substitutes

StüvenSchmidtAmaniampongAlimovAddoPalapiesMoerchen

Manager: D. Wölfel

67'▲L. Grabenberg←▼M. Kadner

72'▲K. Madumere←▼M. Adrian

Magdeburg U19 substitutes

GrabenbergMadumereGüllmeisterStraußGantzkeChukwemeka

U19 Bundesliga: St. Pauli U19 3–1 Magdeburg U19

St. Pauli U19 beat Magdeburg U19 3-1 in U19 Bundesliga on September 14, 2024.

Goals: E. Eroglu (51'), B. Hamidovic (64'), T. Hoffmann (76'), M. Stüven (88').

The match was played at Sportanlage Königskinderweg in Hamburg.

St. Pauli U19 vs Magdeburg U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

U19 Bundesliga: St. Pauli U19 3–1 Magdeburg U19