St. Pauli U19 2–1 Magdeburg U19: Result & Stats

St. Pauli U19

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Magdeburg U19

R. Merke 77'

V. Fazlija 8'

L. Bölke 83'

2/12/2022

U19 Bundesliga · Nord / Nordost - 11Brummerskamp

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 61+ matches

St. Pauli U1947%

×Draw21%

Magdeburg U1932%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

St. Pauli U19Expected goals in this matchMagdeburg U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.10

1.73

St. Pauli U19

2.10

Magdeburg U19

1.73

St. Pauli U19 creates 21% more chances

Season form · 76 home / 61 away

1.91

creates per match

2.02

1.43

allows per match

2.30

creates per match

St. Pauli U19

1.91

Magdeburg U19

2.02

allows per match

St. Pauli U19

1.43

Magdeburg U19

2.30

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

St. Pauli U19+0.00on par

Magdeburg U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over73
Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes72
No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

St. Pauli U19 ↓

Magdeburg U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–18%

1–27%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–16%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

73%27%3.5

53%47%4.5

33%67%

Double chance

St. Pauli U19 or draw

68%

St. Pauli U19 or Magdeburg U19

79%

Draw or Magdeburg U19

53%

Winning margin

St. Pauli U19 wins by 2+

27%

Magdeburg U19 wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

St. Pauli U19 1+ goals

88%

St. Pauli U19 2+ goals

62%

St. Pauli U19 3+ goals

35%

Magdeburg U19 1+ goals

82%

Magdeburg U19 2+ goals

52%

Magdeburg U19 3+ goals

25%

Draw no bet

St. Pauli U19 (draw refunded)

59%

Magdeburg U19 (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

64%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

St. Pauli U19 at home — creates 1.91, concedes 1.43 · 76 matches

Magdeburg U19 away — creates 2.02, concedes 2.30 · 61 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

St. Pauli U19 attack 1.91 + Magdeburg U19 defence 2.30 → ÷2 → 2.10

Magdeburg U19 attack 2.02 + St. Pauli U19 defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

St. Pauli U19 scores more

47%

level

21%

Magdeburg U19 scores more

32%

St. Pauli U19 at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "St. Pauli U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

8'

V. Fazlija

46'

V. Tunc← J. Marks

64'

S. Škrijelj← J. Hinz

65'

P. Thon← A. Oikonomidis

77'

R. Merke

78'

L. Bölke← G. Michalek

79'

B. Winter← V. Fazlija

83'

L. Bölke

90'

R. Merke

90'

R. Merke

90'

F. Hansow← T. Kankowski

St.

Magdeburg

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

Fazlija

Manager: M. Schlichtkrull

64'▲S. Škrijelj←▼J. Hinz

79'▲B. Winter←▼V. Fazlija

90'▲F. Hansow←▼T. Kankowski

St. Pauli U19 substitutes

ŠkrijeljWinterHansowRieselerAmpofoJahrausTobias

Manager: P. Sander

46'▲V. Tunc←▼J. Marks

65'▲P. Thon←▼A. Oikonomidis

78'▲L. Bölke←▼G. Michalek

Magdeburg U19 substitutes

TuncThonBölkeEngelhardtGräfSchadeWien