Magdeburg U19 5–3 St. Pauli U19: Result & Stats

Magdeburg U19

FT

5 – 3

HT: 3 – 2

St. Pauli U19

K. Madumere 70', 22'

J. Frenzel 50', 23'

M. Siebert 4'

T. Hense 88'

E. Eroglu 26', 9'

11/30/2024

U19 Bundesliga · 1st Group Stage - 13Platz 2 MCDD-Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 62+ matches

Magdeburg U1944%

×Draw20%

St. Pauli U1936%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Magdeburg U19Expected goals in this matchSt. Pauli U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.24

2.02

Magdeburg U19

2.24

St. Pauli U19

2.02

Magdeburg U19 creates 11% more chances

Season form · 62 home / 76 away

2.37

creates per match

2.05

2.00

allows per match

2.11

creates per match

Magdeburg U19

2.37

St. Pauli U19

2.05

allows per match

Magdeburg U19

2.00

St. Pauli U19

2.11

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Magdeburg U19+0.00on par

St. Pauli U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over79
Under21

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes77
No23

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Magdeburg U19 ↓

St. Pauli U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–13%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–03%

1–16%

1–27%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–25%

3–34%

3–42%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (7%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

92%8%2.5

79%21%3.5

61%39%4.5

41%59%

Double chance

Magdeburg U19 or draw

64%

Magdeburg U19 or St. Pauli U19

80%

Draw or St. Pauli U19

56%

Winning margin

Magdeburg U19 wins by 2+

25%

St. Pauli U19 wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Magdeburg U19 1+ goals

89%

Magdeburg U19 2+ goals

65%

Magdeburg U19 3+ goals

38%

St. Pauli U19 1+ goals

87%

St. Pauli U19 2+ goals

60%

St. Pauli U19 3+ goals

33%

Draw no bet

Magdeburg U19 (draw refunded)

55%

St. Pauli U19 (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

71%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Magdeburg U19 at home — creates 2.37, concedes 2.00 · 62 matches

St. Pauli U19 away — creates 2.05, concedes 2.11 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Magdeburg U19 attack 2.37 + St. Pauli U19 defence 2.11 → ÷2 → 2.24

St. Pauli U19 attack 2.05 + Magdeburg U19 defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Magdeburg U19 scores more

44%

level

20%

St. Pauli U19 scores more

36%

Magdeburg U19 at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Magdeburg U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

4'

9'

22'

23'

26'

46'

N. Eichholz← B. Hamidovic

46'

P. Schultz← O. Backhaus

46'

T. Moerchen← J. Behr

50'

J. Frenzel

65'

M. Amaniampong← V. Schmidtner

65'

M. Stüven← E. Eroglu

70'

K. Madumere

71'

L. Grabenberg← K. Madumere

74'

M. Herrmann← T. Politz

86'

J. Addo← J. Yanda

88'

T. Hense

Magdeburg

St.

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

⚽2

▼

▼

⚽

⚽2

⚽2

▼

Madumere

Jakob

Manager: D. Wölfel

46'▲N. Eichholz←▼B. Hamidovic

71'▲L. Grabenberg←▼K. Madumere

Magdeburg U19 substitutes

EichholzGrabenbergGantzke

Manager: N. Schick

46'▲P. Schultz←▼O. Backhaus

46'▲T. Moerchen←▼J. Behr

65'▲M. Amaniampong←▼V. Schmidtner

65'▲M. Stüven←▼E. Eroglu

74'▲M. Herrmann←▼T. Politz

86'▲J. Addo←▼J. Yanda

St. Pauli U19 substitutes

SchultzMoerchenAmaniampongStüvenHerrmannAddo