St. Pauli U19 3–0 Carl Zeiss Jena U19

St. Pauli U19

FT

3 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Carl Zeiss Jena U19

A. Loubongo-M'Boungou 84'

J. Wieckhoff 58'

N. Nadj 53'

4/6/2019

U19 Bundesliga · Nord / Nordost - 22Sportanlage Königskinderweg

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

St. Pauli U1952%

×Draw22%

Carl Zeiss Jena U1926%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

St. Pauli U19Expected goals in this matchCarl Zeiss Jena U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.04

1.40

St. Pauli U19

2.04

Carl Zeiss Jena U19

1.40

St. Pauli U19 creates 46% more chances

Season form · 76 home / 60 away

1.91

creates per match

1.37

1.43

allows per match

2.18

creates per match

St. Pauli U19

1.91

Carl Zeiss Jena U19

1.37

allows per match

St. Pauli U19

1.43

Carl Zeiss Jena U19

2.18

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

St. Pauli U19+0.00on par

Carl Zeiss Jena U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over67
Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

St. Pauli U19 ↓

Carl Zeiss Jena U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–19%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

67%33%3.5

45%55%4.5

26%74%

Double chance

St. Pauli U19 or draw

74%

St. Pauli U19 or Carl Zeiss Jena U19

78%

Draw or Carl Zeiss Jena U19

48%

Winning margin

St. Pauli U19 wins by 2+

30%

Carl Zeiss Jena U19 wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

St. Pauli U19 1+ goals

87%

St. Pauli U19 2+ goals

60%

St. Pauli U19 3+ goals

33%

Carl Zeiss Jena U19 1+ goals

75%

Carl Zeiss Jena U19 2+ goals

41%

Carl Zeiss Jena U19 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

St. Pauli U19 (draw refunded)

66%

Carl Zeiss Jena U19 (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

56%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

St. Pauli U19 at home — creates 1.91, concedes 1.43 · 76 matches

Carl Zeiss Jena U19 away — creates 1.37, concedes 2.18 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

St. Pauli U19 attack 1.91 + Carl Zeiss Jena U19 defence 2.18 → ÷2 → 2.04

Carl Zeiss Jena U19 attack 1.37 + St. Pauli U19 defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

St. Pauli U19 scores more

52%

level

22%

Carl Zeiss Jena U19 scores more

26%

St. Pauli U19 at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "St. Pauli U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

53'

N. Nadj

58'

J. Wieckhoff

64'

J. Scheibe← F. Modler

66'

A. Loubongo-M'Boungou← M. Seiffert

75'

Gustavo Melo← J. Wieckhoff

75'

L. Günther← N. Nadj

75'

N. Boog← K. Amesse

84'

A. Loubongo-M'Boungou

85'

F. Weber← J. Münzner

85'

L. Ferizi← M. Leibelt

85'

P. Köhler← J. Heublein

St.

Carl

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Wieckhoff

▼

Münzner

Becker

⚽

▼

▼

Manager: R. Elert

66'▲A. Loubongo-M'Boungou←▼M. Seiffert

75'▲Gustavo Melo←▼J. Wieckhoff

75'▲L. Günther←▼N. Nadj

85'▲F. Weber←▼J. Münzner

St. Pauli U19 substitutes

Loubongo-M'BoungouMeloGüntherWeberFrahmDursunPetrelli

Manager: K. Verhoene

64'▲J. Scheibe←▼F. Modler

75'▲N. Boog←▼K. Amesse

85'▲L. Ferizi←▼M. Leibelt

85'▲P. Köhler←▼J. Heublein

Carl Zeiss Jena U19 substitutes

ScheibeBoogFeriziKöhlerLehmpfuhlFleischerReithmeir

Match Recap: St. Pauli U19 vs Carl Zeiss Jena U19

St. Pauli U19 beat Carl Zeiss Jena U19 3-0 in U19 Bundesliga on April 6, 2019.

Goals: N. Nadj (53'), J. Wieckhoff (58'), A. Loubongo-M'Boungou (84').

The match was played at Sportanlage Königskinderweg in Hamburg.

St. Pauli U19 vs Carl Zeiss Jena U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: St. Pauli U19 vs Carl Zeiss Jena U19