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Carl Zeiss Jena U19 vs St. Pauli U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Carl Zeiss Jena U19
Carl Zeiss Jena U19
FT
3 – 6
HT: 1 – 1
St. Pauli U19
St. Pauli U19
4/27/2024U19 BundesligaU19 Bundesliga · Nord / Nordost - 24Ernst-Abbe-Sportfeld Platz 3

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 47+ matches

Carl Zeiss Jena U1943%
×Draw20%
St. Pauli U1937%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Carl Zeiss Jena U19
2.15
St. Pauli U19
2.00

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 47 home / 72 away

creates per match

Carl Zeiss Jena U19
2.15
St. Pauli U19
2.01

allows per match

Carl Zeiss Jena U19
2.00
St. Pauli U19
2.14

finishing

Carl Zeiss Jena U19+0.00on par
St. Pauli U19+0.00on par

Total goals

78%Over
  • Over78
  • Under22

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

76%Yes
  • Yes76
  • No24

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Carl Zeiss Jena U19 ↓

St. Pauli U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–27%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–25%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–13%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (7%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
92%8%2.5
78%22%3.5
59%41%4.5
39%61%

Double chance

Carl Zeiss Jena U19 or draw
63%
Carl Zeiss Jena U19 or St. Pauli U19
80%
Draw or St. Pauli U19
57%

Winning margin

Carl Zeiss Jena U19 wins by 2+
24%
St. Pauli U19 wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Carl Zeiss Jena U19 1+ goals
88%
Carl Zeiss Jena U19 2+ goals
63%
Carl Zeiss Jena U19 3+ goals
36%
St. Pauli U19 1+ goals
86%
St. Pauli U19 2+ goals
59%
St. Pauli U19 3+ goals
32%

Draw no bet

Carl Zeiss Jena U19 (draw refunded)
53%
St. Pauli U19 (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
69%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Carl Zeiss Jena U19 at home — creates 2.15, concedes 2.00 · 47 matches

St. Pauli U19 away — creates 2.01, concedes 2.14 · 72 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Carl Zeiss Jena U19 attack 2.15 + St. Pauli U19 defence 2.14 → ÷2 → 2.15

St. Pauli U19 attack 2.01 + Carl Zeiss Jena U19 defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Carl Zeiss Jena U19 scores more
43%
level
20%
St. Pauli U19 scores more
37%

Carl Zeiss Jena U19 at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Carl Zeiss Jena U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Carl Zeiss Jena U19 vs St. Pauli U19

St. Pauli U19 beat Carl Zeiss Jena U19 6-3 in U19 Bundesliga on April 27, 2024.

The match was played at Ernst-Abbe-Sportfeld Platz 3 in Jena.