St. Pauli U19 2–0 Carl Zeiss Jena U19

St. Pauli U19

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Carl Zeiss Jena U19

11/18/2023

U19 Bundesliga · Nord / Nordost - 11Brummerskamp

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 47+ matches

St. Pauli U1948%

×Draw22%

Carl Zeiss Jena U1930%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

St. Pauli U19Expected goals in this matchCarl Zeiss Jena U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.01

1.56

St. Pauli U19

2.01

Carl Zeiss Jena U19

1.56

St. Pauli U19 creates 29% more chances

Season form · 71 home / 47 away

1.93

creates per match

1.62

1.49

allows per match

2.09

creates per match

St. Pauli U19

1.93

Carl Zeiss Jena U19

1.62

allows per match

St. Pauli U19

1.49

Carl Zeiss Jena U19

2.09

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

St. Pauli U19+0.00on par

Carl Zeiss Jena U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over69
Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes68
No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

St. Pauli U19 ↓

Carl Zeiss Jena U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–19%

1–27%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

69%31%3.5

48%52%4.5

28%72%

Double chance

St. Pauli U19 or draw

70%

St. Pauli U19 or Carl Zeiss Jena U19

78%

Draw or Carl Zeiss Jena U19

52%

Winning margin

St. Pauli U19 wins by 2+

27%

Carl Zeiss Jena U19 wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

St. Pauli U19 1+ goals

87%

St. Pauli U19 2+ goals

59%

St. Pauli U19 3+ goals

32%

Carl Zeiss Jena U19 1+ goals

79%

Carl Zeiss Jena U19 2+ goals

46%

Carl Zeiss Jena U19 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

St. Pauli U19 (draw refunded)

61%

Carl Zeiss Jena U19 (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

59%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

St. Pauli U19 at home — creates 1.93, concedes 1.49 · 71 matches

Carl Zeiss Jena U19 away — creates 1.62, concedes 2.09 · 47 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

St. Pauli U19 attack 1.93 + Carl Zeiss Jena U19 defence 2.09 → ÷2 → 2.01

Carl Zeiss Jena U19 attack 1.62 + St. Pauli U19 defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

St. Pauli U19 scores more

48%

level

22%

Carl Zeiss Jena U19 scores more

30%

St. Pauli U19 at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "St. Pauli U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff