ST Mirren 1–0 Dunfermline: Result & Stats

ST Mirren

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Dunfermline

C. Main 30'

7/13/2021

League Cup · Group Stage - 2The SMISA Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

ST Mirren61%

×Draw19%

Dunfermline20%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ST MirrenExpected goals in this matchDunfermline

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.33

1.25

ST Mirren

2.33

Dunfermline

1.25

ST Mirren creates 86% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 6 away

3.00

creates per match

1.50

1.00

allows per match

1.67

creates per match

ST Mirren

3.00

Dunfermline

1.50

allows per match

ST Mirren

1.00

Dunfermline

1.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

ST Mirren+0.00on par

Dunfermline+0.00on par

Total goals

Over69
Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ST Mirren ↓

Dunfermline →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–18%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

69%31%3.5

48%52%4.5

28%72%

Double chance

ST Mirren or draw

80%

ST Mirren or Dunfermline

81%

Draw or Dunfermline

39%

Winning margin

ST Mirren wins by 2+

39%

Dunfermline wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

ST Mirren 1+ goals

90%

ST Mirren 2+ goals

67%

ST Mirren 3+ goals

41%

Dunfermline 1+ goals

71%

Dunfermline 2+ goals

36%

Dunfermline 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

ST Mirren (draw refunded)

76%

Dunfermline (draw refunded)

24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

56%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ST Mirren at home — creates 3.00, concedes 1.00 · 8 matches

Dunfermline away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.67 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ST Mirren attack 3.00 + Dunfermline defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 2.33

Dunfermline attack 1.50 + ST Mirren defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

ST Mirren scores more

61%

level

19%

Dunfermline scores more

20%

ST Mirren at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "ST Mirren will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

30'

C. Main↳ G. Kiltie

63'

C. Wighton← D. Thomas

67'

C. MacPherson← J. McGrath

67'

K. Dennis← E. Brophy

67'

E. Erhahon← G. Kiltie

67'

L. Erwin← C. Main

73'

K. McAllister← S. Tanser

75'

P. Allan

90+3'

N. Todorov

ST

Dunfermline

1

44

2

6

3

5

23

▼

16

18

7

10

1

4

22

18

3

▼

Tanser

6

Power

7

▼

McGrath

12

Henderson

10

⚽

▼

Main

9

▼

Brophy

11

A

▼

Kiltie

Manager: J. Goodwin

67'▲C. MacPherson←▼J. McGrath

67'▲K. Dennis←▼E. Brophy

67'▲E. Erhahon←▼G. Kiltie

67'▲L. Erwin←▼C. Main

73'▲K. McAllister←▼S. Tanser

ST Mirren substitutes

14MacPherson20Dennis16Erhahon23Erwin17McAllister8Flynn19Finlayson2Tait26Lyness15Reid

Manager: P. Grant

63'▲C. Wighton←▼D. Thomas

Dunfermline substitutes

9Wighton26Todd29Mehmet19Fenton13Gašpuitis