Dunfermline 1–2 St Mirren: Result & Stats

Dunfermline

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

St Mirren

N. Clark 49'

J. Baird 64'

C. Smith 13'

1/26/2018

League #180 · Round 23East End Park (Dunfermline)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Dunfermline46%

×Draw29%

St Mirren25%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

DunfermlineExpected goals in this matchSt Mirren

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

0.83

Dunfermline

1.25

St Mirren

0.83

Dunfermline creates 51% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 3 away

1.83

creates per match

1.33

0.33

allows per match

0.67

creates per match

Dunfermline

1.83

St Mirren

1.33

allows per match

Dunfermline

0.33

St Mirren

0.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dunfermline+0.00on par

St Mirren+0.00on par

Total goals

Under66
Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No60
Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dunfermline ↓

St Mirren →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–110%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

62%38%2.5

34%66%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Dunfermline or draw

75%

Dunfermline or St Mirren

71%

Draw or St Mirren

54%

Winning margin

Dunfermline wins by 2+

21%

St Mirren wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Dunfermline 1+ goals

71%

Dunfermline 2+ goals

36%

Dunfermline 3+ goals

13%

St Mirren 1+ goals

56%

St Mirren 2+ goals

20%

St Mirren 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Dunfermline (draw refunded)

65%

St Mirren (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

27%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dunfermline at home — creates 1.83, concedes 0.33 · 6 matches

St Mirren away — creates 1.33, concedes 0.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dunfermline attack 1.83 + St Mirren defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 1.25

St Mirren attack 1.33 + Dunfermline defence 0.33 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Dunfermline scores more

46%

level

29%

St Mirren scores more

25%

Dunfermline at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Dunfermline will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

13'

C. Smith↳ L. Morgan

42'

J. Craigen← D. Shiels

49'

N. Clark↳ J. M'voto

61'

R. Flynn← I. McShane

63'

F. Aird← M. Paton

64'

J. Baird↳ K. Magennis

71'

A. Ryan← K. Higginbotham

78'

D. Mullen← G. Reilly

82'

G. MacKenzie← C. Smith

Dunfermline

St

1

Samson

44

Eckersley

24

Davis

15

⚽

Baird

25

Smith

4

McGinn

16

▼

McShane

10

A

Morgan

7

A

Magennis

20

▼

Reilly

11

⚽

▼

Smith

25

Robinson

4

A

14

5

2

27

▼

Shiels

15

▼

Paton

7

▼

Higginbot

8

Wedderbur

10

⚽

Clark

9

McManus

Manager: A. Johnston

42'▲J. Craigen←▼D. Shiels

63'▲F. Aird←▼M. Paton

71'▲A. Ryan←▼K. Higginbotham

Dunfermline substitutes

28Craigen17Aird16Ryan23Smith20Gill3Martin6Ashcroft

Manager: J. Ross

61'▲R. Flynn←▼I. McShane

78'▲D. Mullen←▼G. Reilly

82'▲G. MacKenzie←▼C. Smith

St Mirren substitutes

18Flynn27Mullen6MacKenzie26Hill2Demetriou9Sutton21I