ST Mirren 2–3 Dunfermline: Result & Stats

ST Mirren

FT

2 – 3

HT: 0 – 3

Dunfermline

D. Mullen 65'

C. Cooke 63'

T. Beadling 40'

A. Ryan 24'

R. Dow 18'

7/14/2019

League Cup · Group Stage - 2Simple Digital Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

ST Mirren58%

×Draw20%

Dunfermline22%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ST MirrenExpected goals in this matchDunfermline

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.26

1.32

ST Mirren

2.26

Dunfermline

1.32

ST Mirren creates 71% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 6 away

2.86

creates per match

1.50

1.14

allows per match

1.67

creates per match

ST Mirren

2.86

Dunfermline

1.50

allows per match

ST Mirren

1.14

Dunfermline

1.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

ST Mirren+0.00on par

Dunfermline+0.00on par

Total goals

Over69
Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ST Mirren ↓

Dunfermline →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–06%

1–18%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

69%31%3.5

48%52%4.5

28%72%

Double chance

ST Mirren or draw

78%

ST Mirren or Dunfermline

80%

Draw or Dunfermline

42%

Winning margin

ST Mirren wins by 2+

36%

Dunfermline wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

ST Mirren 1+ goals

89%

ST Mirren 2+ goals

66%

ST Mirren 3+ goals

39%

Dunfermline 1+ goals

73%

Dunfermline 2+ goals

38%

Dunfermline 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

ST Mirren (draw refunded)

73%

Dunfermline (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

57%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ST Mirren at home — creates 2.86, concedes 1.14 · 7 matches

Dunfermline away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.67 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ST Mirren attack 2.86 + Dunfermline defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 2.26

Dunfermline attack 1.50 + ST Mirren defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

ST Mirren scores more

58%

level

20%

Dunfermline scores more

22%

ST Mirren at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "ST Mirren will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

18'

R. Dow↳ J. Coley

24'

40'

62'

63'

65'

70'

79'

O. Djorkaeff← S. McGinn

89'

L. McCann← R. Dow

ST

Dunfermline

1

4

3

2

5

6

7

⚽

▼

Dow

8

⚽

Beadling

11

A

Coley

10

⚽

▼

Ryan

9

A

▼

1

6

2

15

4

▼

8

10

7

25

A

Erhahon

20

⚽

Cooke

18

⚽

Mullen

Manager: J. Goodwin

79'▲O. Djorkaeff←▼S. McGinn

ST Mirren substitutes

23Djorkaeff17Kellerman24MacPherson26Lyness48Glover44Walker

Manager: S. Crawford

62'▲G. McGill←▼K. Nisbet

70'▲K. Turner←▼A. Ryan

89'▲L. McCann←▼R. Dow

Dunfermline substitutes

18McGill15Turner17McCann16Bowman20Gill12Lang14Todd

Match Recap: ST Mirren vs Dunfermline

Dunfermline beat ST Mirren 3-2 in League Cup on July 14, 2019.

Goals: R. Dow (18'), A. Ryan (24'), T. Beadling (40'), C. Cooke (63'), D. Mullen (65').

The match was played at Simple Digital Arena in Paisley.

ST Mirren vs Dunfermline — League Cup 2025

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: ST Mirren vs Dunfermline