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SSV Ulm 1846 vs Karlsruher SC — 2. Bundesliga 2018

SSV Ulm 1846
SSV Ulm 1846
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Karlsruher SC
Karlsruher SC
10/20/20242. Bundesliga2. Bundesliga · Round 9Donaustadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

SSV Ulm 184640%
×Draw25%
Karlsruher SC35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

SSV Ulm 1846
1.48
Karlsruher SC
1.36

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 17 home / 119 away

creates per match

SSV Ulm 1846
1.24
Karlsruher SC
1.43

allows per match

SSV Ulm 1846
1.29
Karlsruher SC
1.71

finishing

SSV Ulm 1846+0.00on par
Karlsruher SC+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SSV Ulm 1846 ↓

Karlsruher SC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

SSV Ulm 1846 or draw
65%
SSV Ulm 1846 or Karlsruher SC
75%
Draw or Karlsruher SC
60%

Winning margin

SSV Ulm 1846 wins by 2+
19%
Karlsruher SC wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

SSV Ulm 1846 1+ goals
77%
SSV Ulm 1846 2+ goals
43%
SSV Ulm 1846 3+ goals
19%
Karlsruher SC 1+ goals
74%
Karlsruher SC 2+ goals
39%
Karlsruher SC 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

SSV Ulm 1846 (draw refunded)
54%
Karlsruher SC (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SSV Ulm 1846 at home — creates 1.24, concedes 1.29 · 17 matches

Karlsruher SC away — creates 1.43, concedes 1.71 · 119 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SSV Ulm 1846 attack 1.24 + Karlsruher SC defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.48

Karlsruher SC attack 1.43 + SSV Ulm 1846 defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

SSV Ulm 1846 scores more
40%
level
25%
Karlsruher SC scores more
35%

SSV Ulm 1846 at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "SSV Ulm 1846 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

2. Bundesliga: SSV Ulm 1846 0–1 Karlsruher SC

Karlsruher SC beat SSV Ulm 1846 1-0 in 2. Bundesliga on October 20, 2024.

The match was played at Donaustadion in Ulm.