Karlsruher SC 4–0 SSV Ulm 1846: Result & Stats

Karlsruher SC

FT

4 – 0

SSV Ulm 1846

1/5/2024

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 5Platz 2 Wildparkstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Karlsruher SC48%

×Draw20%

SSV Ulm 184632%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Karlsruher SCExpected goals in this matchSSV Ulm 1846

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.38

1.92

Karlsruher SC

2.38

SSV Ulm 1846

1.92

Karlsruher SC creates 24% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 5 away

2.55

creates per match

2.20

1.64

allows per match

2.20

creates per match

Karlsruher SC

2.55

SSV Ulm 1846

2.20

allows per match

Karlsruher SC

1.64

SSV Ulm 1846

2.20

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Karlsruher SC+0.00on par

SSV Ulm 1846+0.00on par

Total goals

Over80
Under20

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes77
No23

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Karlsruher SC ↓

SSV Ulm 1846 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–13%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–03%

1–16%

1–26%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–16%

3–26%

3–34%

3–42%

4

4–02%

4–14%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (7%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

93%7%2.5

80%20%3.5

62%38%4.5

42%58%

Double chance

Karlsruher SC or draw

68%

Karlsruher SC or SSV Ulm 1846

80%

Draw or SSV Ulm 1846

52%

Winning margin

Karlsruher SC wins by 2+

29%

SSV Ulm 1846 wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Karlsruher SC 1+ goals

91%

Karlsruher SC 2+ goals

68%

Karlsruher SC 3+ goals

42%

SSV Ulm 1846 1+ goals

85%

SSV Ulm 1846 2+ goals

57%

SSV Ulm 1846 3+ goals

30%

Draw no bet

Karlsruher SC (draw refunded)

60%

SSV Ulm 1846 (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

71%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Karlsruher SC at home — creates 2.55, concedes 1.64 · 11 matches

SSV Ulm 1846 away — creates 2.20, concedes 2.20 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Karlsruher SC attack 2.55 + SSV Ulm 1846 defence 2.20 → ÷2 → 2.38

SSV Ulm 1846 attack 2.20 + Karlsruher SC defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Karlsruher SC scores more

48%

level

20%

SSV Ulm 1846 scores more

32%

Karlsruher SC at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Karlsruher SC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff