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Karlsruher SC vs SSV Ulm 1846 — 2. Bundesliga 2018

Karlsruher SC
Karlsruher SC
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
SSV Ulm 1846
SSV Ulm 1846
3/16/20252. Bundesliga2. Bundesliga · Round 26BBBank Wildpark

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Karlsruher SC49%
×Draw24%
SSV Ulm 184627%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Karlsruher SC
1.67
SSV Ulm 1846
1.17

Karlsruher SC creates 43% more chances

Season form · 119 home / 17 away

creates per match

Karlsruher SC
1.80
SSV Ulm 1846
0.88

allows per match

Karlsruher SC
1.45
SSV Ulm 1846
1.53

finishing

Karlsruher SC+0.00on par
SSV Ulm 1846+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Karlsruher SC ↓

SSV Ulm 1846 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Karlsruher SC or draw
73%
Karlsruher SC or SSV Ulm 1846
76%
Draw or SSV Ulm 1846
51%

Winning margin

Karlsruher SC wins by 2+
26%
SSV Ulm 1846 wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Karlsruher SC 1+ goals
81%
Karlsruher SC 2+ goals
50%
Karlsruher SC 3+ goals
23%
SSV Ulm 1846 1+ goals
69%
SSV Ulm 1846 2+ goals
33%
SSV Ulm 1846 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Karlsruher SC (draw refunded)
65%
SSV Ulm 1846 (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Karlsruher SC at home — creates 1.80, concedes 1.45 · 119 matches

SSV Ulm 1846 away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.53 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Karlsruher SC attack 1.80 + SSV Ulm 1846 defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.67

SSV Ulm 1846 attack 0.88 + Karlsruher SC defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Karlsruher SC scores more
49%
level
24%
SSV Ulm 1846 scores more
27%

Karlsruher SC at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Karlsruher SC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Karlsruher SC vs SSV Ulm 1846

Karlsruher SC and SSV Ulm 1846 drew 0-0 in 2. Bundesliga on March 16, 2025.

The match was played at BBBank Wildpark in Karlsruhe.