SSV Ulm 1846 vs Fortuna Düsseldorf — 2. Bundesliga 2018
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 17+ matches
SSV Ulm 184636%
Fortuna Düsseldorf37%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Both teams create about equally
Season form · 17 home / 115 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under51
- Over49
Close call
Both teams score
- Yes54
- No46
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
SSV Ulm 1846 ↓
Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
SSV Ulm 1846 at home — creates 1.24, concedes 1.29 · 17 matches
Fortuna Düsseldorf away — creates 1.37, concedes 1.38 · 115 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
SSV Ulm 1846 attack 1.24 + Fortuna Düsseldorf defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.31
Fortuna Düsseldorf attack 1.37 + SSV Ulm 1846 defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.33
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 37%?"
Fortuna Düsseldorf at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 37% does not mean "Fortuna Düsseldorf will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Player of the match
Match Events
Fortuna Düsseldorf substitutes
Head to Head
FC Schalke 04
SV Elversberg
SC Paderborn 07
Hannover 96
SV Darmstadt 98
1. FC Kaiserslautern
Hertha BSC
1. FC Nürnberg
VfL Bochum
Karlsruher SC
Dynamo Dresden
Holstein Kiel
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
Arminia Bielefeld
1. FC Magdeburg
Eintracht BraunschweigFortuna Düsseldorf
Preußen Münster
Rot-Weiß EssenIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Possession
Shots
Pass accuracy
Statistics
SSV Ulm 1846 host Fortuna Düsseldorf on Sunday, 25 August 2024 at 11:30. The match is part of the 2. Bundesliga 2018/2019 season.
SSV Ulm 1846 1 – 2 Fortuna Düsseldorf
Fortuna Düsseldorf beat SSV Ulm 1846 2-1 in 2. Bundesliga on August 25, 2024.
Goals: F. Higl (42' pen), D. Pejčinović (81'), D. Schmidt (82').
Fortuna Düsseldorf controlled possession (55%) and registered 12 shots to 21.
The match was played at Donaustadion in Ulm.