SSV ULM 1846 1–5 Fortuna Dusseldorf: Result & Stats

SSV ULM 1846

FT

1 – 5

HT: 1 – 4

Fortuna Dusseldorf

A. Morina 1'

M. Ducksch 70', 15'

D. Lukebakio 43', 37'

R. Hennings 33'

10/30/2018

DFB Pokal · 2nd RoundDonaustadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

SSV ULM 184619%

×Draw19%

Fortuna Dusseldorf61%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SSV ULM 1846Expected goals in this matchFortuna Dusseldorf

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.23

2.31

SSV ULM 1846

1.23

Fortuna Dusseldorf

2.31

Fortuna Dusseldorf creates 88% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 14 away

0.75

creates per match

2.50

2.13

allows per match

1.71

creates per match

SSV ULM 1846

0.75

Fortuna Dusseldorf

2.50

allows per match

SSV ULM 1846

2.13

Fortuna Dusseldorf

1.71

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

SSV ULM 1846+0.00on par

Fortuna Dusseldorf+0.00on par

Total goals

Over68
Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SSV ULM 1846 ↓

Fortuna Dusseldorf →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–17%

0–28%

0–36%

0–43%

1

1–04%

1–18%

1–210%

1–37%

1–44%

2

2–02%

2–15%

2–26%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

68%32%3.5

47%53%4.5

27%73%

Double chance

SSV ULM 1846 or draw

39%

SSV ULM 1846 or Fortuna Dusseldorf

81%

Draw or Fortuna Dusseldorf

81%

Winning margin

SSV ULM 1846 wins by 2+

8%

Fortuna Dusseldorf wins by 2+

39%

Team goals

SSV ULM 1846 1+ goals

71%

SSV ULM 1846 2+ goals

35%

SSV ULM 1846 3+ goals

13%

Fortuna Dusseldorf 1+ goals

90%

Fortuna Dusseldorf 2+ goals

67%

Fortuna Dusseldorf 3+ goals

40%

Draw no bet

SSV ULM 1846 (draw refunded)

24%

Fortuna Dusseldorf (draw refunded)

76%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

55%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SSV ULM 1846 at home — creates 0.75, concedes 2.13 · 8 matches

Fortuna Dusseldorf away — creates 2.50, concedes 1.71 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SSV ULM 1846 attack 0.75 + Fortuna Dusseldorf defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.23

Fortuna Dusseldorf attack 2.50 + SSV ULM 1846 defence 2.13 → ÷2 → 2.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

SSV ULM 1846 scores more

19%

level

19%

Fortuna Dusseldorf scores more

61%

Fortuna Dusseldorf at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Fortuna Dusseldorf will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

20

D. Lukebakio

Fortuna Dusseldorf · F

9.1

Match Events

1'

A. Morina↳ D. Braig

15'

M. Ducksch↳ T. Usami

20'

Alfredo Morales

33'

R. Hennings↳ D. Lukebakio

37'

D. Lukebakio↳ M. Rensing

41'

Takashi Usami

43'

D. Lukebakio↳ J. Zimmer

58'

A. Viventi← A. Morina

62'

T. Bradara← M. Schindele

65'

K. Stöger← A. Morales

69'

B. Raman← D. Lukebakio

70'

M. Ducksch↳ K. Stöger

75'

F. Nierichlo← D. Braig

75'

H. Nielsen← M. Ducksch

88'

Matthias Zimmermann

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SSVFortuna

Overview

42%Possession58%

15Total Shots14

3Corners5

10Fouls9

Shots

15Total Shots14

3On Target10

7Off Target2

5Blocked2

5Inside Box7

10Outside Box7

Passing

42%Possession58%

364Total Passes498

278Accurate Passes403

76%Pass Accuracy81%

Goalkeeping

5Saves2

Discipline

10Fouls9

0Yellow Cards3

0Red Cards0

3Offsides2