Fortuna Düsseldorf vs SSV Ulm 1846 — 2. Bundesliga 2018
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 17+ matches
Fortuna Düsseldorf51%
SSV Ulm 184625%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Fortuna Düsseldorf creates 54% more chances
Season form · 115 home / 17 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over52
- Under48
Close call
Both teams score
- Yes53
- No47
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Fortuna Düsseldorf ↓
Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Fortuna Düsseldorf at home — creates 1.78, concedes 1.28 · 115 matches
SSV Ulm 1846 away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.53 · 17 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Fortuna Düsseldorf attack 1.78 + SSV Ulm 1846 defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.66
SSV Ulm 1846 attack 0.88 + Fortuna Düsseldorf defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.08
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 51%?"
Fortuna Düsseldorf at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 51% does not mean "Fortuna Düsseldorf will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Player of the match
Match Events
Head to Head
FC Schalke 04
SV Elversberg
SC Paderborn 07
Hannover 96
SV Darmstadt 98
1. FC Kaiserslautern
Hertha BSC
1. FC Nürnberg
VfL Bochum
Karlsruher SC
Dynamo Dresden
Holstein Kiel
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
Arminia Bielefeld
1. FC Magdeburg
Eintracht BraunschweigFortuna Düsseldorf
Preußen Münster
Rot-Weiß EssenIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Possession
Shots
Pass accuracy
Statistics
Fortuna Düsseldorf host SSV Ulm 1846 on Saturday, 1 February 2025 at 12:00. The match is part of the 2. Bundesliga 2018/2019 season.
2. Bundesliga: Fortuna Düsseldorf 3–2 SSV Ulm 1846
Fortuna Düsseldorf beat SSV Ulm 1846 3-2 in 2. Bundesliga on February 1, 2025.
Goals: Í. Jóhannesson (9'), A. Keller (13'), D. Kownacki (15', 60' pen), O. Batista Meier (52').
SSV Ulm 1846 controlled possession (51%) and registered 21 shots to 10.
The match was played at Merkur Spiel-Arena in Düsseldorf.