SSV Ulm 1846 vs FC Ingolstadt 04 — League #80 2026
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 8+ matches
SSV Ulm 184636%
FC Ingolstadt 0438%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Both teams create about equally
Season form · 8 home / 18 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over51
- Under49
Close call
Both teams score
- Yes55
- No45
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
SSV Ulm 1846 ↓
Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
SSV Ulm 1846 at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.50 · 8 matches
FC Ingolstadt 04 away — creates 1.28, concedes 1.44 · 18 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
SSV Ulm 1846 attack 1.25 + FC Ingolstadt 04 defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.34
FC Ingolstadt 04 attack 1.28 + SSV Ulm 1846 defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.39
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 38%?"
FC Ingolstadt 04 at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 38% does not mean "FC Ingolstadt 04 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Player of the match
Match Events
Hansa RostockFC Ingolstadt 04
Rot-Weiß Essen
Verl
Erzgebirge Aue
VfL Osnabrück
SSV Jahn Regensburg
SV Wehen
TSV 1860 München
FC Viktoria KölnSSV Ulm 1846
Alemannia Aachen
Stuttgart II
MSV Duisburg
Havelse
Energie Cottbus
FC Saarbrücken
Hoffenheim II
FC Schweinfurt 05
Waldhof MannheimIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Possession
Shots
Pass accuracy
Statistics
SSV Ulm 1846 host FC Ingolstadt 04 on Sunday, 15 March 2026 at 18:30. The match is part of the League #80 2026/2027 season.
SSV Ulm 1846 1 – 3 FC Ingolstadt 04
FC Ingolstadt 04 beat SSV Ulm 1846 3-1 in League #80 on March 15, 2026.
Goals: J. Kugel (27'), J. Maljojoki (68'), M. Costly (75'), L. Dajaku (81' pen).
SSV Ulm 1846 controlled possession (57%) and registered 18 shots to 7.
The match was played at Donaustadion in Ulm.