FC Ingolstadt 04 1–2 SSV Ulm 1846: Result & Stats

FC Ingolstadt 04

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

SSV Ulm 1846

M. Hoppe 10'

E. Aksakal 65'

S. Mamba 59'

3/25/2026

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendly

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

FC Ingolstadt 0437%

×Draw24%

SSV Ulm 184640%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FC Ingolstadt 04Expected goals in this matchSSV Ulm 1846

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.51

1.58

FC Ingolstadt 04

1.51

SSV Ulm 1846

1.58

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 13 home / 9 away

1.46

creates per match

1.78

1.38

allows per match

1.56

creates per match

FC Ingolstadt 04

1.46

SSV Ulm 1846

1.78

allows per match

FC Ingolstadt 04

1.38

SSV Ulm 1846

1.56

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FC Ingolstadt 04+0.00on par

SSV Ulm 1846+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Ingolstadt 04 ↓

SSV Ulm 1846 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

60%40%3.5

37%63%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

FC Ingolstadt 04 or draw

60%

FC Ingolstadt 04 or SSV Ulm 1846

76%

Draw or SSV Ulm 1846

63%

Winning margin

FC Ingolstadt 04 wins by 2+

17%

SSV Ulm 1846 wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

FC Ingolstadt 04 1+ goals

78%

FC Ingolstadt 04 2+ goals

44%

FC Ingolstadt 04 3+ goals

19%

SSV Ulm 1846 1+ goals

79%

SSV Ulm 1846 2+ goals

47%

SSV Ulm 1846 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

FC Ingolstadt 04 (draw refunded)

48%

SSV Ulm 1846 (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Ingolstadt 04 at home — creates 1.46, concedes 1.38 · 13 matches

SSV Ulm 1846 away — creates 1.78, concedes 1.56 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Ingolstadt 04 attack 1.46 + SSV Ulm 1846 defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.51

SSV Ulm 1846 attack 1.78 + FC Ingolstadt 04 defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

FC Ingolstadt 04 scores more

37%

level

24%

SSV Ulm 1846 scores more

40%

SSV Ulm 1846 at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "SSV Ulm 1846 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

10'

M. Hoppe

59'

S. Mamba

65'

E. Aksakal

FC

SSV

39

Ortag

2

Gorlich

3

Vukancic

7

⚽

8

21

23

24

34

45

⚽

Mamba

49

Becker

47

Klein

2

⚽

6

7

8

14

24

30

39

44

Manager: Sabrina Wittmann

FC Ingolstadt 04 substitutes

Esslinger5Gul10Kaygin11Christensen15Scholz19Rosenlocher27Nduka41Hengmith

Manager: Pavel Dotchev

SSV Ulm 1846 substitutes

12Seybold30Kahvic25Loder26El-Zein27Mazagg33Brown36MrdenRaidtGbadamassi